10 Free Forex Setups: Sun Sept 2 2018 – Fri Sept 7 2018
1 Cryptocurrency Setup
How did these setups play out?
AUDCAD – The breakout happened after basing at lows. Not a big move, 77 pips potential, but certainly playable
AUDNZD – The long played out and 50 pips may seem small, but not if you trade size.
AUDUSD – Playing the breakout was 77 and waiting for a pullback and shorting off the lower high formed on the four hour gave up 25 – still be in the trade.
CADAUD – Why did I say breakout? Basing at highs of momentum is playable and this went for 92
CHFAUD – Pullback underway but no trade
CHFJPY – I’ve written many times to try to find an entry before the breakout. This was obvious (four hour) for a 125 pip upside move
EURAUD – No entry to catch the move down
EURJPY – Was looking for more downside that never happened. Break of trend line to upside as well as minor resistance and basing had a buy stop above 129.80. Play to resistance for 93.
GBPAUD – Wanted to short but took a four hour range break to catch the 180 pip downside
NZDCHF – Price ranged all week
DASHUSD – The bear flag broke and consolidated
Some weeks you see price continue to move against your setups and this was one of them. These markets are certainly stretched and the daily strong movements of price can be dangerous to trade. You want to wait for an entry that is not simply jumping in. This is trading.
180 pips – and probably one of the worst play out of the setups I have ever seen. No worries….you need the setup PLUS the trigger and we didn’t get one!
Onward and upward
That said, the model I use for these setups is designed for traders of all levels. My main model utilizes other conditions including a quantified breakout strategy on the daily and weekly but is not something that will make its way to these pages.
Why do I tell you this?
You must design your own strategy and you can use what is covered in these many pages of setups, as a jumping off point.
Hi Shane, is there a specific set of currency pairs that you analysis each week to find the setups? I’d like to try and emulate how you go about this and see if I can cut down the time I spend on the charts each week & select the ones I went to watch at the weekend in advance.
I scroll through 22 minor pairs first. Then hit 6 majors and 3 or 4 exotics. Truth be told, if I can stay away from a USD cross, I generally will.
Thanks Shane; I’ll give it a go. I suspect I’ll take about 4 times as long as you to pica these out!
Incidently, the site is still showing week commencing Dec 16th. Are you having a well deserved break? 😉
I usually take this time off and get back into it the second week of Jan. Here’s a tip: If you need to stare at a chart, there’s nothing there. Know exactly what you are looking for.
Hi,looking for new set up this January
Yep….starting back for next week.
Yet another good week – many thanks.
Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year when it comes.
Have a great Christmas Johnnie. See you in the new year!
Almost all of these trading signals playing out like you wrote. do you have a crystal ball????? LOL
LOL. No crystal ball. Just what the charts tell me. Who knows, they could all turn around tomorrow
It does seem spooky, sometimes. 😉
Postings for 9 Dec appear to be the setups from 2 weeks back! Help!
Perhaps I should delete folders from my desktop! Updated and thanks
That was quick! Do you never sleep? Many thanks
You people are so important to me that I’ve enabled loud alarms when I get a message. Kidding. I was on Skype when your message came 🙂
Many thanks for last weeks signal,it was really fantastic.
You are welcome. The best thing was they were fairly simple to enter as the entry/trigger was obvious for the most part.
….. Oh, and PS I have 3 trades carried over that are doing very nicely too – I may take the week off.
After a big week and big moves, I am well aware that the following week may have issues. Getting into the quiet season….don’t give back the gains.
Hi Shane, many thanks for last weeks setups (w/c 25/11). I grew my balance by a very healthy 7.9% and I missed a few and was very conservative in my approach. Keep up the great work – there is nothing out there that even comes near to touching this site.
Funny as I was wondering how things were going with you. Happy to see you are still using what I post up here. It is interesting that I read so much fluff on the web but simple works….over and over again. Congrats on the % increase!
Superb, what a web site it is! This blog provides useful information to us, keep it up.
I shall. Thanks
I have been getting your setups every week and things are beginning to make sense. I am finding my approach to each chart comes close to what you post in the recap. This week was outstanding. I don’t know why this is free but i am very grateful that they are. Thank you SD
That is great to read! Congratulations on your success and doing the work. It doesn’t come easy but it is worth the effort
I AM NEW TO FOREX
WHERE CAN I START TO LEARN FOREX
This site has so much you can learn from.
SD i hope you are well , i am a bit perplexed , how do one tell which signal is for which day, trust me its hard for me to tell.
thanks for your feedback SD
The setups are valid on each chart for the week
Hi SD, Did you miss the USDCHF mean reversion setup this week or you did not think that it was going to yield more than 100 pips?
Posted your answer here: http://forextradingstrategies4u.com/usdchf-valid-setup/
Hi SD, your comments on EURJPY last week intrigue me as I missed the break upwards Do you routinely set buy or sell stop orders contrary to your preferred direction of the trade to catch such moves? Many thanks as always
It’s not routine as context matters. Using the four hour chart, you can see the range form under highs and the failure of the test of highs to drive price down. Also using the four hour, look at the symmetry of the corrective move breaking. This puts the odds in a further move up.
Regarding last weeks trades, I’m struggling to see the reason for entering the EURCHF, EURJPY and AUDJPY. I couldn’t see any clear rejection at the point that they turned, apart from just playing support and resistance and trendlines (which I believe has no edge on its own). If you have the time, could you please explain how one would have entered these markets because they all played out extremely well.
P.s thank you for all the hard work you put in to keep this fantastic site running. (Awesome. You are welcome)
Thanks for a great question. IT deserved a better answer than I can write here so here is a post about it: http://forextradingstrategies4u.com/trade-entries/
Hi SD, I hope I find you well. When is the right time to remove risk on a trade bearing in mind that you do not want to be stopped out after a retrace and also you do not want to be caught flat footed and lose everything from a winning trade?
One of the easiest things to do….set a trailing stop. Don’t worry about anything else. Any other management of trades has to be tested as there is no one size fits everybody. You may be impressed how much better you do if you trailed every stop as opposed to managing
27/08 – I got stopped out on shorts on both EURJPY and CHFJPY. Both had strong 4hr sell candles and I agreed with your analysis especially on the trend line on EURJPY. I stuck to my trading plan and can’t beat myself up too much over these loses but would be interested to see if you managed them any differently e.g. if I’d waited for additional 4 hr candles to form, it would have been obvious price was moving in the opposite direction (but I do like getting in early!).
I am not sure where you see the entries. If I am reading correctly, you traded the breakout of the small range. If you go back over many charts I’ve posted, my entry is usually a failure test of highs or lows as seen in this article: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/trapped-traders-setups-can-give-strong-edge/ If I trade a breakout, it is a breakout from a smaller range inside of the larger range. Another thing to consider…what is your standard for a “strong” candlestick?
Thanks SD, on both trades I entered after the close of the 2nd 4 hr candle – yes I need to rework my definition of a strong candlestick in future! AUDJPY went the same way as well , though the 2nd and 3rd 4hr candles looked more like a stronger move down (around 45pips).
chfaud and aud were my trades exact as you wrote on the charts.
So many thanks. Do you coach private?
Superb! No, I don’t coach private and if I did, it wouldn’t be much different than what I post every week. Some things in my own trading is a little different but the concepts are the same. Besides, coaching would be too much like a j.o.b.
Please explain what you mean by mean reversion trade
Think of an up trending market (momentum to the upside) and price has made a large run in price. Large moves generally reverse back towards an “average price”. The key is to find a way to determine if a market has “stretched” too far. Simple trend channels can help you in this regard. When I speak of a mean reversion trade, I have determined that price has stretched and will be looking for a reversal setup. Look at this setup (AUDNZD)that was posted and then bring up the current chart: http://forextradingstrategies4u.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/AUDNZD.png
GBPAUD – as per your comment on last weeks charts, still in and up a considerable number of pips. Targeting a longer play down to 1.730 – many thanks yet again.
That was an example of seeing a momentum move down but a pullback that didn’t “fit” that down move. It could have moved down from where the snapshot chart was but the only way I would have been involved is if it went into a range for a few days. Head down to a four hour chart and look for upthrusts (failure test of highs) or a smaller range right above the support of the larger range. I was happy we had the pullback to be honest. This was an easy trade to get into.
si vous m’envoyer des signaux gratuit j’en serais ravis mes salutationd cordiales
“Entrez votre email et vous pouvez voir les graphiques avec les configurations sur eux. Merci”
On mean reversion, once a reversal is signalled, do you use the daily ATR, a moving average, or more complex method to determine a suitable target? Many thanks.
I usually just watch price and look for follow through. You may not want to be too rigid as there is the potential you have grabbed a trend reversal. Using ATR is not a bad way to monitor the intent of the price movement. If it is stalling before reaching the ATR value, you may want to take action to reduce risk.
Thanks SD. I think your AUDNZD setup is a good example. I would have been tempted to exit this in profit soon after it reached the 50 MA on the 4 hr chart on the basis that it’s reverted to the mean and may soon head back up, but looking at the daily chart there’s many more pips to be had in the mean reversion, and as you say there’s potential that we’ve grabbed a trend reversal. I’ll continue moving my stop down cautiously and watch for any stalling over the next couple of days!
We are at a point on the chart, former resistance turned to potential support, where we need to see momentum through this zone. Using the four hour chart to peak in to see if momentum to the upside is stepping in is not a bad plan. Using a trailing stop makes good sense as well. 🙂
Great setup on AUDNZD this week; the reversion to mean played out perfectly. Took profits almost on the max and back in waiting for the next pop upwards now….many thanks
Yes Sir! That setup played out perfectly as presented on the posted chart. A great example of having a trend bias but understanding price enough so you can see a potential counter trend trade.
just closed a Gbpcad short. saw price jump up to the bottom of the red zone and short on four hour and took 180 points. I want to learn like you.
Awesome! Way to use what I talk about every single week.
Hey SD can I get your opinion on something please? I’ve been watching EURAUD for ages now and it’s stuck in a DAILY range of 1.587 and 1.572. I’d only trade the break on a day close as there’s been so many false starts on the lower timeframes. How would you trade this one? There’s obviously a lot of potential here.
Here you go: http://forextradingstrategies4u.com/euraud-range/
SD, hope you are well. Are there any disadvantages of scaling in, adding new positions on winning trades?
Those who scale in usually do so because loading the full position can actually move the market. I personally don’t scale in although I am sure there is some justification for it. Adding new positions if the setup occurs during a trade does make sense….if you’ve reduced the risk or eliminated the risk in the first position. In the end, are you better served by entering full position and scaling out and leaving a runner?
Hi SD, I hope I find you well. Your trade management strategies and risk reduction techniques, are they only suitable for swing trading or they can also apply to trend trading and any other trading strategy?
Awesome question. While everyone has a different risk tolerance and must find what is valid for them, I change nothing regardless of what or how I am trading.
its my first time seeing your setups but not my first time on your website. i think i have missed a lot here but its never too late. Yesterday i closed AUDNZD on lose but didn’t close EURNZD and i just woke up and so over 70pips move. i want to say thank you for your website and everything in it. i just want to say God bless you and give you strength and knowledge to write more. Thank you, Nnamdi
Glad you enjoyed it. I highly suggest you look over everything on this website. In regards the AUDNZD, the only way you would have taken a loss is if you had gone long. There was no long play as far as I can see as everything, much like what I had written on the chart, was short. Now we will see how price evolves during the week but on the daily chart, if this is a higher low were are putting in, along with the lower high, this could be the beginning of a range.
Thank you rkay for the run of pips
Quite happy since I collected 291pips of the possible 300
Love your site , made me the trader I am , I have become this great because of you. Man
I truly owe you lunch for the 89.6% I have maintained for the past 9 months
Many thanks to u again and again
Glad things are working out for you! Rkay has not been doing these updates for over a year…..SD is in the house!!! 🙂
Thanks for the PDF link last week, it certainly filled in some missing pieces for me.
Every week you talk about, the edge in mean reversion and momentum trading. So to trade this edge, one must have a plan and rules set in place to trade it. So if wins and losses come in random sequence. How can one tell if the edge is still valid with rules the individual has set in place?
I hope that makes sense.
It does make sense and the only way you know if the edge you are trading is still “an edge”, is if you actually log every trade you take. Presumably you tested the strategy you are trading and the numbers looked good. Going forward, you must have seen an equity curve increase. Once you start bleeding, the equity curve heads in the wrong direction, you may want to start evaluating.
The truth is that mean reversion and momentum is how the market moves. It is that simple. You find the imbalance between buyers and sellers in both of those conditions and take appropriate action. It’s been said there are thousands of edges in trading…but the hard part is finding one. Keeping the way the market moves in the front of your mind as you tackle a strategy will put the odds in your favor that the “edge” you find will stand the test of time.
Your site is excellent. Costing me nothing to make some money!
Awesome. You’re buying lunch
Interesting setup on NZDUSD last week and this week. As well as the potential short, the weekly charts suggest to me to go long for an extended period of time (If i have the patience and nerve!) Thanks as always for your analysis.
The weekly chart is basically at the bottom of a range that I see. The only compelling reason for a long is the failure test of support. What can potentially happen on the daily, is a drop on the but a higher low turning into a complex correction. My thoughts would be different if it was a climax move on the weekly.
Let me also add….if your weekly is a reversal for you, pure price action plays on lower time frames as you play bull flags to the upside. One of my favorite plays is an extended weekly chart having an exhaustion move with a strong reversal candlestick. From there, lower time frame – daily and four hour – flag breaks
Thanks for tuning in!
Thanks; I’ll watch this one with interest to see how it plays out!
Incidently, I’m well up on your NZDCHF NZDCAD and CHFJPY plays carried over from last week, and only down on AUDNZD (my fault; late in and should have got out last week). A grateful thanks for the scenarios and overall approach taken – this is far superior to anything else out there .
My pleasure and glad that some find value from what I do.
Hi SD, just want to say big thanks. The information I’ve gotten from your form has surpassed anything I’ve paid for in the past and has me looking at the market in whole new light.
I was just wondering if you had book that you would recommend on price action, so I could advance my knowledge on market structure and candles.
If I get one of these types of comments every few months, it makes it all worth it. Thanks for the words. I think most price action books are just rehashed drivel and price action by itself, doesn’t have much of an edge, if any. How about I give you a link to a free PDF that is better than much of the stuff you can buy: https://www.netpicks.com/go/pricepatternguide/
The PDF is free and there is a video package for less than $20
Great trade on AUDNZD this week, and one developing on CADCHF – many thanks again. Kicking myself on the CADCHF box break upwards, as I’ve treated this as a further pullback, but sometimos its better to set a shorter target and take the points.
You can certainly counter trade when expecting a pullback if the conditions are right. It was a cheap failure test of lows on the CADCHF…do you mean CADJPY?.
Yes, CADJPY sorry!
Hi, SD, I guess that’s your name. My names is Sandy and I’m relatively new to FOREX. I came across this BLOG and enjoy it very much. I’ve decided I would like to learn and practice swing trading. I’ll be following
Welcome Sandy and glad you like it!
Hi SD, I hope you are well. I need a bit of education. How do I setup a trailing stop on a trade?
Many ways including: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/best-trailing-stop-technique/
You can also use ATR and calculate the new stop price daily.
Thanks for the insight On the watch not to trace foolish trades
Struggling a bit with The EURCHF setup this week could you check out my logic please? The daily candle on 14/06 suggests to me that its breaking to the downside, and the developing candle on the 15th is a weak retracement towards the flags trendline. Therefore, I’m aiming to go short next week on completion of the retracement, if it still shows weekness. Does that check out? Thanks as always for your insight.
Sounds about right. Not much is looking compelling the last little while
Thank you, you guys bring some trading clarity to the market place.
Good to hear.
Thanks for your comments on GBPJPY. I took profits when it retraced, and now looking to enter a sell on 4hr chart as it returns to the downside off the trendline.. Your setups and commentary are turning me into a proper swing trader! 😉
I think that is fine trade management. You knew it was a counter trend trade when you took it. You kept your expectations in check. You decided to cut out when adverse price action set in. Sure, it may rally and even see a trend change but that will be in hindsight. Good on you.
Hi, I hope i find you well. I would like to borrow some of your ideas and include them in my trading plan.
When or after how many pips do you move your stop loss to breakeven point in a trend trade and counter trend trade and when or after how many pips do you trail stop your trades.
Not going to happen. Your plan has to be unique to you…your tolerance….your personality…your style of trading. You may be able to piece together some of what I do by some of the articles on my blog but I am not going to list aspects of my trading plan. It takes work to put one together…..
Gbpjpy has an interesting pin bar touching a trendline – I’ve gozne long despiste The overall down trend
Legit trade. Also consider that daily has completed a complex correction. The weekly could be considered a failure test of support. I personally don’t put much weight into a pin bar or a trend line without supporting context.
i mailed you guys a few times no reply please make an telegram group for signals and discussion we can reply to each other live fast and instantly . its faster that website update and also your price action course need to be fixed the fotos on the site are down please correct it i have also made an pdf of your course so people can get it on the go let me know ill give it to you . email is firstname.lastname@example.org let me know .
You may have missed the intent of my website. It was never intended to be a messaging service or forum for users to exchange ideas. There are costs involved in all of that the go beyond hosting. I am happy though that you find the information that I have put out for free helpful and worthy of sharing. Thanks for pointing out the photos. Please note that this information on my site is intellectual property and while making a PDF for yourself is a great idea, please don’t share it.
Thanks for the free setups very informative.
Keep up the good work
sometimes i have difficulties to get the idea of buying or sell in the setups. Do you provide an advice setups with more explanations behind?
Look through this entire blog and all the setups that have been posted. The lessons are all contained within.
Great result On USDCHF short – I took profits early at.98955 but may go back in if further indications of a reversal. I love the commentary on your site and signals – please never change!
That pair is irritating right now if looking for a long winded swing trade. If you like the commentary, you will like a new article I did: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/jumping-yen-weakness/
Going to tell you that I have never seen such great trading setups for free. Can you see the future hahaha.
Learning alot an slowly seeing the light.
If I could see the future I’d be grabbing the winning lottery ticket! No, just looking at probabilities and when the idea fails, is there a way to capitalize on it. Glad you are learning something from my site.
Boom! Your failure test setup played on eurchf. Brk of resistance trendline and quick rejection. Short. 123 pips played. Yes sir.
Can you tell me how you nailed almost to the pip how far NZDCHF would fall please????
Hi Igor. Those types of setups are great when they happen and catch traders on the wrong side of the move. As I mention many times, the failure of something can often lead to a trade in the opposite direction.
SD, I did not want to trade setups like the EURCHF at first because I thought when price breaks on the downside and then when it comes back up that downside would be a resistance and price would be forced to go down again.
Right. First, let’s be clear with words – it’s never resistance until it is resistance. Always call support and resistance zones POTENTIAL support/resistance. It certainly can hold there but that is why we manage our trades. What don’t you want to see if price hits that zone again? You don’t want to see extreme weakness. You don’t want to see breaks of the zone and immediate rejection of higher prices. What traders must do is get rid of the textbook way of trading and the way many blogs and courses tell you to. It’s tired old theory. Let price SHOW YOU resistance.
SD, another good trade on the EURCHF, When you want to go long and price breaks on the downwards and you trade on the H4 when price comes back up. Is this not similar to a pullback and trade?
Context matters right? We want long. Price was in more of a range BUT the overall trend is up. A hard break of lows with zero follow through is simply bears and weak longs being handled. I love to see exhaustion thrusts like that or even long tails to cap the end of a correction in the market. This is another lesson on why those who suggest tight stops….are wrong.
Hi SD, good trade on the CADJPY. Price broke out on the downside then I traded when it went up on the H4. Sitting on 160 pips now. Keep up the good work!!
I have always said that simple works and in this case, it was a bull flag. Another thing to note on the four hour, since we were looking to trade long, the momentum candlestick was interpreted as a final flush of shorts….and then we ride!
I read that you were going to start charging money for your setups. I hope you do not do that. I learnt alot from what you do every week and am learning to make money and how to trade. No other place gives this like you. ARe you?
Not sure where you read that but it is not true. I have zero plans to ever charge for the weekly setups. In doing so, I would be going against my goal of helping others learn how to trade. Charging for these and the trading lessons they can teach…does not suit my purpose. Besides, I enjoy doing them.
Great result on the CADCHF setup – many thanks keep up the great work!
Daily setup – four hour chart when price moves down in the pullback – entry like we talk about virtually every single week.
hehe. Was wondering why you didn’t post any GBP trades last week but liked what you said what to watch for. You wer right….four hour charts gave entries into the weak GBP. TKS! Any plans for one on one training?
Hey Mike. Ya…most of the GBP crosses looked the same. When price is on a one way street, entries can be difficult. It all depended on how price evolved during the week but the bottom line was looking in the same direction as the move. Consolidations on lower time frames was called for.
No. I’ve been asked a few times for one on one and even offered some decent money to do so. It would be too much of a job and would have to actually answer to somebody even though it is they that need to do the work. You never want to be the “blame” when people fail. Trading is a meritocracy and even with hand holding, most won’t do the work.
Hi. Can you tell me if i did this right?
Using 4 hr chart like you do and did this
went long gbpaud at 1.8324 after brekout.
long gj at 15165 and bough eos at 11.95 on daily.
Also please tell me why u didn’t watnt to sell NzdUsd
Your site is the best and i remember when that guy was saying you were stupid for wanting to buy Eur and he said everyone watned selling a long time ago. I told my friends you were right and now they all follow your signals. So many thank yous!
You must be over my shoulder because those are my positions and similar entry prices. Good on you! You probably entered around a consolidation area on those charts which can make it a momentum type entry.
Regarding NZDUSD – price was extending downwards and there was no entry on the daily or four hour….until yesterday the 24th when price consolidated giving an entry into the down move. Trailing the stop down to manage the trade. Snapbacks on these can be violent. Extended markets like this can make for a hard entry and the risk of adverse price action increases the further it falls.
Thanks for the comment. Ya, that guy could not think for himself and needed outside confirmation to ensure he was “right”. Seems he and “everyone” were wrong.
UPDATE: GBPJPY had an extreme pattern failure but the lack of follow through had me tighten the stop as you can see in the attached graphic. We NEVER know which trades will work out but when price action is showing lack of what we expect for a successful pattern, we take action. This was a 26 pip winner: http://forextradingstrategies4u.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Untitled-1.png
For AudJpy, why you didn’t short from current resistance with that bearish pin. Was that due to you consider such short term uptrend ?
If you are looking at the chart that I posted and not current you can see the range that formed. I’d literally be shorting right back into the range at that point by shorting that green candlestick.
Price consolidating at the highs of a momentum thrust statistically is bullish context.
Note on the chart I did say when I would consider shorting.
You said some are still holding and let me tell you that my USDCAD short trade from last week is holding. This is one of the top 3 pip getters I’ve ever had and thanks to you. this week I bought the cadjpy, was watching audjpy but hard move up took that setup away. What i have learned from you is that a setup and a trade are to different things. AJ was a great example for me
That is great to read Christine! For sure, you can have a setup that is fully valid such as the AUDJPY and the pullback failed with momentum. Good on you knowing to stand aside!
Good day. Thank you for the inclusion of the GBP-JPY signal. Your signals are great. It will also be this week from 2.4. – 5.4.? I will be very pleased. Prutkayova
I’ve always liked the GBPJPY. That was the currency pair that ran for 1021 pips years ago that bankrolled my trading account. It’s been a little rough trading conditions for that pair off the daily charts for a while though.
Hi Sd, It has been a difficult trading week with no clear cut moves. For now I think its better to take the foot off the gas pedal as you said. Lets hope next week will be a better week. Have a happy Easter Weekend!!
There have not been the cleanest of setups for a while now. One look at the Dollar Index and you can see a barometer of the trading conditions. You can still trade…..you just have to be nimble.
Thanks for the insight and the signals once again
Hi Sd, I hope you are well. Quick question – how do you determine or what do you see to conclude that a market is overextended?
You can see it after staring at literally thousands of charts over the years. That said, try drawing trend lines ensuring you get the last peak before lows in a down trend. BUT….markets can remain in that condition…it’s just information. We saw it with the AUDUSD during the steady grinding rise. When grinding price over time finally breaks, it can be violent. Remember though….it doesn’t always have to play out like that….but it does so enough to have an edge.
Thanks for the insight, much appreciated.
was looking for the long on the POUND and i trade daily so I wait for the close. No trade long but the failures you mention gave me a shorting opprotunity on break of monday low. profit at 13794 from open at 1.3925. Taking week off now
That was a great breakout failure- https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/forex-trading-signals/gbpusd-24/
Hi SD, yesterday Monday, the USD just got so strong so much that all the setups were put off. I checked the news and there was no high impact news concerning the USD I wonder what caused it to be so strong.
Expectations of a rate hike in the U.S. Not all pairs were affected to any great degree. The USDJPY for example is setting up as are a few others. EURUSD on the daily chart looks messy but the weekly chart, at this moment, tells a different story. Forex lives and dies on the strength of monetary policy and economic health. Just look for the same patterns we always look for every single week.
I was trading the NZDUSD on the H4 and I was stopped out. I got something on the GBPUSD H4 because this pair broke out a bit earlier although price did not reach my target.
I hope you were short the NZDUSD after the pullback on the 26th. There is nothing long about that chart. If you are trading a chart that looks like the GBPUSD and your target is beyond those support levels, either actively manage around those zones, bring your target inside the levels, or skip the trade if the r/r is lopsided due to a smaller target.
SD, unfortunately I was long on the NZDUSD as per the setups suggestion. The breakout occurred on the H4 and there was follow through until price just started going south. I should have changed my trade from long to short when price closed below the support levels. This was a good lesson for the future.
1.You traded the Sunday open which is the Asia session.
2.Price had not broken the down sloping trend line.
3.You need to get your time frames that you are trading, straight
4.You were trading a four hour setup – in a down trend on the four hour – taking a long position.
You were not trading the daily setup suggestion.
Going from long to short? That again would have been a four hour chart play. Does your trading plan call for such jumps between bias?
Your short would have suffered a rally as price pulled back into former support (potential resistance). Where would you have exited?
Suggestion, for what it’s worth – use one time frame until you can understand the inter-play between the charts.
Thank you SD……well noted.
When the breakout occurs and the signal is valid to take, can you send us an email for notification in case we are away from charts and not observing
No. Set an alert to be notified.
I saw the one day pullback on the daily chart btc and used the 4hr chart like you do. enter @10713 and still holding at 11549
Good stuff Kev. You should know how you will exit by now. Scale and trail is my preferred.
My best week and was chfjpy
I am trailing my stop above tuesday high. should i do something else?
Glad it went well. You should have a trading plan before you enter a trade. While it makes sense looking to play another push down after that big move (which happened and you put your stop in a good location) being greedy is never a good trade.
You’re welcome. Hope you are picking up a few things from my posts.
Hi Sd, What a start to the week with all currency setups evolving on Monday!! The EURCHF moved 125 pips in 4 hours!!
It was quite the stunning day with scale outs and targets hit.
Is it possible to watch for a move downside on the EURCHF after a pullback or consolidation after such a move?
You can watch for whatever you like. You certainly don’t want to just jump on any move hoping for the continuation right after it. Large moves need to be digested.
What do we watch for the rest of the week when all the moves happened on Monday?
Daily updates are not the focus of this blog. You can take what you’ve been learning and apply it. The bigger question is why you feel you need to watch for anything after such an explosive day in some currencies and markets. That’s a serious question.
Sd, wanted to keep the momentum going!
Which momentum? The only thing in trading that has momentum is the market. We, never do. Our wins/losses come in a random distribution. Stick to your trading plan and don’t let quick profits get you into the unprofessional trader mindset.
What a great start to the week sd. Thank you for putting these charts up for free. I wanted to watch gbpchf because of the move down and it payed off.
Awesome Liz. That was certainly the cleanest CHF setup.
hi, i just went through your review for last week’s set up, really great work you are doing here. please keep it up…i was gonna say “i dont know what to say as regards thanking you enough” but i already figured what your response would be;”you do know what to say …and then a smilie !” thanks a bunch for the good works
You’re right. 🙂 Thanks for the words.
Good setup this week and do u sometimes change a direction on a trade? i mean if you say longs will you go to shorts?
I will do that but it’s context. You don’t want to just change direction on a whim.
I was really fascinated by the EURCHF this week. You said we want a pullback or consolidation before going short (reason is probably the price was now far from breakout point, correct me if I am wrong)
That would be correct. After a momentum move down, many people just short the breaks of momentum candlesticks. There is no edge there. After a market extends like that, the tendency is mean reversion.
Indeed we had a pullback on 4H and a breakout, a long bearish candle. then we had a pullback with momentum.
Yes. That was a complex pullback. You can see the A-B=C-D movement clearly. The thrust upwards…I am never a fan of during pullbacks.
If one was to open a trade after the close of the long bearish candle that trade was a losing trade as there was no other meaningful downward moves so it was better to exit the trade after the momentum bullish candle. From this I now understand why you dont like a pullback with momentum after a breakout.
Exactly. But I don’t see why you’d be long unless you were day trading.
In hindsight, was it possible to trade the long bearish candle after the pullback rather than make an entry after the candle had closed?
No. Not for me. That is intra-day trading and not something I do. However, talking in hindsight but including everything I talk about..check out this chart
I have tried to access your signals but keep getting this: ‘It looks like there was an error: There was an error with your submission: There was an error saving the data to GetResponse: .
It seems to be the email you are using. I tried with another email and it is fine.
A few way.
Failed test of lows on daily.
4 hr cht, break of triangle but prefer small range.
Yes. There are multiple ways to enter a trade and these are the ones I have written about many times. It all depends on how price evolves. If I were to say I am waiting for X and only X to happen, I am saying that I can predict. I can’t. I look for evolution of price and determine if the imbalance leans on the side of the bulls.
Failed test of lows on daily.
4 hr cht, break of triangle but prefer small range.
What do you think of US government shutdown?
It will lower US dollar’s value a lot?
I think the shutdown is a silly response to an immigration issue. I don’t know what it will do to the USD and don’t really care what happens. I don’t entertain fundamental factors in my trading.
question, you don’t trade at all with fundamental factors?
No and the words “fundamental factors” has a large scope. The information contained in price suits me fine.
Hi SD, please help me on the ATR. Today 01/19/18 ( 11:00 CAT) the ATR on CADJPY, 4H time frame is 0.3058, the ATR on GBPNZD 4H time frame is 0.0063 and the ATR on GBPJPY 4H time frame is 0.4896. When considering the ATR for Stop loss purposes do we have to ignore the first 2 numbers after the decimal point?
No. You do not ignore it. When JPY is quote currency, you need the first numbers after the decimal.
You MUST understand any trading tool you are using…before using it.
Assuming you are using these at 2XATR for stops (I round the numbers)
CADJPY – 65 pip stop
GBPNZD – 130 stop
GBPJPY – 100 pip stop
SD. why did the jpy pairs not play like you wrote?
As I mentioned in the update, many of the crosses depended on the JPY holding strength into this trading week.
“Why” it didn’t does not affect the trading decision…..it just didn’t hold strength in most of the crosses.
You may also note that on the weekly charts, many of the JPY crosses mentioned are in either a trading range of very weak trend. EURJPY and CHFJPY are great examples.
Strong momentum thrusts have the odds in the favor of another leg down (or up) after a brief consolidation or pullback. Do the testing over a large sample and you will see that to be the case.
That said…..if you look at the CHFJPY as an example….that is a strong move against the previous leg down. What do I say about pullbacks? We want a lazy pullback.
In hindsight, I should have discounted that chart because as of time posting, the strong move was already present. It was on the watchlist because there was still a chance of a consolidation (I wrote that) and Monday it could have been argued that price was starting to show the weakness we needed. It failed to materialize.
Once price started to take off on that pair (after the break high on Monday), lower time frame trades to the upside could have been had with the range context of the weekly.
If you look at the lower time frames, you will see that although price broke upwards, the size of the wicks and large red candlesticks does not scream bulls fully in charge.
Keep in mind that is impossible for me to list out all the things that can happen with each chart and how to handle it.
My hope is that people see how these charts play out over time…over weeks and months….and from that learn to navigate each chart and resolution for trading opportunities or lack of.
GBPUSD. Thought I was going to miss it until the pulbak on Tuesday 1.3780 was entry and up over 130. When should i exit?
I imagine you used the lower time frame for the entry. Your exit strategy for all trades should be in place before you take the trade. I will say that when price makes large moves in relation to recent history, I take profits. You could always monitor price action on lower time frames and extreme weakness may be cause for concern. This is an extended market.
SIR. The amount of money I’ve made using the crypto tips you’ve posted especially shorts this week on the lower timeframes has been incredible. The Forex setups are doing a lot of what you siad. I am suprised but happy you aren’t charging money for this.
Who’s buying lunch?? Kidding. Congratulations.
Hi Sd, hope you are well and fine. This week’s EURAUD set up, you say ” consolidation or pullback for another upside shot”, what is your reason to wait for a consolidation or pullback and not go long straight away?
“Going long straight away” is not an entry strategy for me, not based on anything market related….and even more dangerous after a large momentum move in price.
As you can see price is pulling back……using a lower time frame to watch how the pullback resolves is not a bad play at all. You can get entries off of lower time frames if you are seeing, according to your trading rules, an increase in bullish activity.
took my first ever neo trade following your charts. i used 4hr chart like you and saw the lazy. bt at 143 and close at 176.07
That is awesome! Glad the first was a winner…and a great one at that!
I don’t know what to say.
EU went down from the chart you posted but i knew we were still looking for longs. I saw the pullback you call bull flags and used a low time frame. i was long on thurs thank you thank you
You did know what to say 🙂 You’re welcome.
I was long on thurs as well. Thank you Thank you!
Thank you always!
what do you think of USDJPY setup?
is it symmetrical pattern breakout to downside, and wait for the retest?
do you think it will take that down movement for longer?
and looks like USDCAD’s pullback is done and take short again to at least the previous lower low?
EURUSD: I also see inverse head and shoulder and neck like is about to break?
I don’t get caught up in patterns such as head and shoulders to be honest. EURUSD longs are still in play certainly and I’ve been bullish (while “everyone” was bearish) for quite a while now on EURO.
USDCAD. Pretty much. Want to see some type of continued weakness, perhaps lower time frame such as four hour.
Just be aware when trading the majors……they center around USD. Pick the best.
Probably a little premature for entry at this point. If traders were monitoring as I had mentioned in the update, some were hopefully positioned somewhere on Tuesday for the break.
Understand that a retest does not have to happen. Price can consolidate at lows which effectively works off this move down and then another shot down.
I made some profits on your EURNZD setup.
I study your course everyday at least hours and hours. Thank you so much!
That’s awesome Stan! There can be more downside but stop is no doubt a little tighter
Hi SD, hope I find you well. Quick question – if the setup is a bull flag and price breaks out on the downside do you still take the trade?
Thanks in advance.
Any strong break of a bull flag to the downside is a pattern failure and I would not take the short.
If you mean are longs off the table, no. Monitor what happens after the break and consolidations that show bull strength (such as tests of support), can often be another entry opportunity.
Try using Opera, it works just fine.
Thank you for that!
I DON’T GET U AT ALL
COULD EXPLAIN MOOR SPECIFIC
Here, start with reading this (I do have to redo that page though…it looks sloppy)
This is my first time in the service, so far as i can see my Chrome is resolving these just fine.
Thanks. I think most problems people will have are isolated to their computers.
Can you adjust your graphs so they can be read in the Chrome browser. Compltely unreadable and can ONLy be read in the Microsfot internet explorer browser (a Pain)
Otherwise EXCELLENT signals !!
Odd. I use Chrome and they are fine. I even used the “incognito” mode.