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Trader Talk

The conversation continues…..keep in mind that this is just my look at things.  There is no “right” way.

Wise words, “Distinct would be in the eye of the beholder”. I agree with you once again on “price is traveling sideways”, but I guess here is where we our agreement ends, as I see the price expanding while traveling sideways … 🙂 … This might be more obvious in a 4 hour chart … But tell me, what is “price acceptance”?

What I meant about price travelling sideways is I don’t consider those areas where prices pivoted, swings.  Here is a great example of this price pattern where you can see, un-mistakenly, distinct swings in price.  On the four hour chart on the pair you are trading, why was the high on the 16th discounted considering it was the last directional move in price? In the end though, I don’t generally use lower time frame charts as a setup chart.  Peter Brandt, the trader this chart is from, won’t consider any pattern less then 13 weeks old.  Different strokes.

Price acceptance.  If price reaches a level and is rejected, the new price level was not accepted.  Price closing at or above the level, price acceptance which, for me, carries much more weight.

I searched for … Rule of “Thumb Acceptance” … I found nothing … 🙁 … What is “Thumb Acceptance”?

You know, “as a rule of thumb, use a 50 SMA because big institutions use them”.  I ignore rules of thumb until it’s proven.  On that note, how do we know?  We don’t.  It’s just what people say.

I agree, “expanding upper and lower swings, is it’s a market without clear direction. “ … But guess what? According to Richard Schabacker, it’s about to get it … The market without clear direction is about to get directional … Thank you for introducing me to the work of Richard Schabacker … It supplemented the knowledge I had of Megaphones.

Exactly.  Why do I want to trade a market without clear direction? It becomes no better than random.  About to get direction and having direction are two vastly different things for me. I won’t put risk on a directionless market.  Also note the Schabacker, Ewards and Magee gang are long before we have the quantitative abilities we have now.  Even Peter Brandt, a long time respected classical chart pattern trader, has found, after decades of statistics, his results on any pattern outside of horizontal patterns were not very good.  Now, strictly horizontal patterns for him.

I wanted to post a pic of my entry point in a chart, and in a copy of the trade info in the Trade tab in the Terminal

You can’t.  Jing is a free tool where you can screen capture (even record video) for free and they host the upload giving you a link.  Allowing uploads opens my server to hacks.

OMG … Are you looking over my shoulder? … Have you hacked my laptop? … You hit the nail right on the head … That’s my sin … 🙁 … My analysis is complex and labor intensive … Sometimes it takes me 4 to 6 hours to thoroughly analyze a pair … 🙁

Whoa.  If I have to search, it isn’t there.  A few minutes a pair, tops.  Our brains love patterns and the longer I stare, the more chance I could come up with something.  Much like seeing an animal in the clouds.

You’re right. I wouldn’t know. But the question is ‘why would I want to know’? … If something is producing good results with true data, why would I care if the same something is producing good or bad results with random data?  If something is producing profits with true data trade it … if it doesn’t, then don’t … I’m sorry, I fail to see the relevance of random data … Why even consider random data, if I’ll never trade random data?

If it produces similar results with random data, there is no driver behind price (the random data) therefore behind what how someone approaches the market  It’s no better than chance.

A good test…..turn off all your price bars, insert a bunch of horizontal lines, turn price back on.  You will see bounces, retests and a bunch of price activity around your random lines.

Here is a great story about random data and a chart where someone thinks its true data.  I think you will understand why I believe random data certainly has a place in any back test.

The bark of the naysayers is a sign you’re doing something great … 🙂

Thank you.  I find those that are succeeding, don’t feel the need to waste their time going negative.

You’re right. I’m sorry, I was dragging you to my 4H charts … 🙁

Don’t get me wrong, I will use a four hour for a closer look at something that catches my eye.  I will also use the 4 hour for an entry into a daily setup.  Just in this case, there was nothing I wanted to put risk on.  Remember though….as mentioned on the chart, there was an opportunity as a support holding/failing trade, that’s why I posted it.

What is the purpose of keeping it simple? After all, the more indicators, studies, strategies telling you what the market is supposed to do, the higher the level of confidence to take the trade. Am I right?

Going back to the chart, it was a support holding or failing setup.  I didn’t need a bunch of other things showing me that.  I see the logic in what you are saying however how robust can something be that needs far too many variables to make a decision.  A few minutes a chart as opposed to a few hours and we came to the same conclusion – there was a trading opportunity.

Not saying this applies to you but people will look for everything to line up so they can avoid a loss.

Wins/losses come in a random distribution so no matter how many things lines up, does not increase the chance the next trade is a winner. Then..how do I test everything on its own and then combine everything to see if there is an edge?

When the expectancy of the system plays out over a large basket of trades and the results are not what they “should” have been, how do I know where the issue is with the strategy?

Thank you for sharing your insights. At the end, I think we all process the same information differently. The sharing of ideas enriches us both … 

Absolutely!

“Inflection point”? … I’m sorry. I lost you … I first came to the knowledge of this concept in Calculus … According to Merriam-Webster-Treviño an inflection point is  a point on a curve that separates an arc concave upward from one concave downward and vice versa.

(in business) a time of significant change in a situation; a turning point.

(with a greater imbalance of one or the other, I would like to see something happen that shows it.) “See something happen” … like what?

Taking a support trade for example, seeing a Wykoff spring makes me happy.  Price will spike down and then regain back up to support.  This takes into account price rejection and acceptance that I wrote about earlier.  This shows a true imbalance.  There is no guesswork…..no subjectivity.  Here is a primer on springs and upthrusts.  You can also see my USDCAD entry here as an example

Here is the four hour chart of NZDCHF.  The first circle shows my kind of support test.

Remember, I posted this chart because there was a setup for a trade.  A trade that many would consider.  What I do is post up charts that show potential.  I certainly don’t trade all of them from a risk perspective and some just evolve in a manner more suitable to my approach.  I can see where many may enter a trade and go a little more conservative when doing the results.  For example…on that chart….the retest of support is one entry.  A break of a short term trend line and retest is another.

Mean reversion and momentum.  That’s how I approach the market and requires very little in terms of analysis.  Inside of those two things, are simple patterns and qualifying information for those patterns.  I hope some of that comes across every week when I post a chart.

 

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2 thoughts on “Trader Talk”

  1. Note : Following your protocol, I used italics. When I pasted my reply in this window, the italics disappeared. How do I get to keep italics to differentiate our writing?

    The 5 distinct swings are :
    1.- Low of Nov. 17.
    2.- High of Nov. 22.
    3.- Low of Nov. 24.
    4.- High of Nov. 28.
    5.- Low of Nov. 30.

    (This is about the rectangle area where Rolando sees a megaphone pattern.) Distinct would be in the eye of the beholder.  For me, these are not really swings nor distinct as price is travelling sideways and since S/R are zones rather than lines, it could simply be tests.  We are also missing price acceptance at those levels.

    Wise words, “Distinct would be in the eye of the beholder”. I agree with you once again on “price is traveling sideways”, but I guess here is where we our agreement ends, as I see the price expanding while traveling sideways … 🙂 … This might be more obvious in a 4 hour chart … But tell me, what is “price acceptance”?

    I agree. I read that most of the time they are reversal patterns. Is it true?

    (This is about megaphones being both continuation or reversals.) I have never done any testing on this pattern and discount rule of thumb acceptance. 

    I searched for … Rule of “Thumb Acceptance” … I found nothing … 🙁 … What is “Thumb Acceptance”?

    What I do know is that, as suggested by expanding upper and lower swings, is it’s a market without clear direction. 

    I agree, “expanding upper and lower swings, is it’s a market without clear direction. “ … But guess what? According to Richard Schabacker, it’s about to get it … The market without clear direction is about to get directional … Thank you for introducing me to the work of Richard Schabacker … It supplemented the knowledge I had of Megaphones.

    I stay away with that type of price action.

    And I’m drawn to it … 🙂 … I bought very close to the bottom of W5 (Low of Nov. 30) … I’m expecting to read your instructions as to how to include pics … I wanted to post a pic of my entry point in a chart, and in a copy of the trade info in the Trade tab in the Terminal … I’m sure the instructions will follow below.

    You are right. This chart does not qualify as a 3 push pattern.  In the book Street Smart (Laurence and Linda) they do not require such a “push”.  And they call their non-push, push-like pattern, Three Little Indians.

    It is a good pattern to watch for as it does show up quite a bit.  I don’t trade the actual event but look for a setup in the opposing direction when they are clear on the chart.
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    I trade both. The 3 Little Indians, and the break of Support or Resistance lines. Just as shown in UsdTry page.

    Why don’t you use fibs?

    The ratios….never found them to be much use.  The closest I get to using them is the extension tool for symmetry in swings.
    I got more precise test of the Fib ratios when I used to trade Futures. I got hooked on the Fib ratios, and ‘other’ semi-proprietary ratios when I was trading Futures.

    If doing my homework profits are just ok, can you imagine not doing my homework?

    (You have clearly shown you’ve done your homework in terms of tech analysis.)  Simplify.

    OMG … Are you looking over my shoulder? … Have you hacked my laptop? … You hit the nail right on the head … That’s my sin … 🙁 … My analysis is complex and labor intensive … Sometimes it takes me 4 to 6 hours to thoroughly analyze a pair … 🙁

    No. I have only used true market data. Tell me, what’s the purpose of quantifying my learnings over random data?

    (Have you quantified any of your learnings over a large sample set using both true market data and random data?)  If something is showing up in random data sets, the question becomes how do you know that what you are trading over true data is not better than random? 

    You’re right. I wouldn’t know. But the question is ‘why would I want to know’? … If something is producing good results with true data, why would I care if the same something is producing good or bad results with random data?

    If the market data result is similar to the random data baseline, do you really have an edge?

    If something is producing profits with true data trade it … if it doesn’t, then don’t … I’m sorry, I fail to see the relevance of random data … Why even consider random data, if I’ll never trade random data?

    Very intersting. Do you share the results of these tests with your subscribers?  I’m getting familiar with your website. Did I miss such results?

    (My work is using not only commonly accepted market behaviors but also tested out over those sample sets)  No.  Quantitative work is a brain drain and not something I would give away. 

    Good … 🙂

    I already get enough naysayers with the setups I post. 

    LOL … “Deja que los perros ladren Sancho, es señal que estamos avanzando” … “Let the dogs bark Sancho, it’s a sign we’re advancing.” … Sometimes Don Quijote and Sancho Panza would ride late at night or in the wee hours of the morning … They would sleep on the saddle while riding their horse and ass … The problem was that, sometimes, the beasts will quit advancing and take a nap themselves too … The bark of the dogs was a confirmation that their beasts were moving forward … The bark of the naysayers is a sign you’re doing something great … 🙂

    Intelligent discussion is more than welcome (such as yours) but others are low-brow.

    I think that one of the manifestations of intelligent discussion is what’s already happening between us … We agree to disagree … 🙂

    Let me see if I got it … 1.- Tech analysis … 2.- Test over large samples … right?

    (Most importantly of those two, tested out over large samples is the key.)  You certainly want to have your ideas drafted out.  What you are looking for.  Then test.  Most traders just scroll through charts but there are testing platforms out there that are better suited for that purpose.
    READ  Swing Trading For Dummies Crash Course
    I agree.

    I concur.

    (Much conventional wisdom is not accurate and does not prove out.)  There are some that still think a moving average has some magical quality that it is actually support and resistance.

    🙂

    Is “testing over a large sample” the simple approach?

    (There is an edge in this simple approach.)  Without testing, you don’t know if what you have is better than random. 

    True.

    But that’s not what I meant.  Simple mean reversion and momentum approaches actually have a statistical edge.

    Yes.

    You are correct. But wouldn’t you reserve the boxes for a type of consolidation where you could limit price action between a horizontal channel? I’m sorry. I’m still biased. I keep seeing a megaphone with 5 distinct swings. Maybe it’s not there.

    (The box I drew was intentional because in simple terms, we are looking at consolidation. Consolidations at support instead of price rejection lean towards continued downside move. Think of the logic behind that statement.)  Horizontal channels allow for splash as support and resistance is not an exact price.  These are zones and I could have made the box larger to encompass the tests of resistance.  If however I saw true swings and not sideways, my look at this chart would be different.

    Ok.

    “Lean towards bears”? … I already went long … Don’t jinx my trade …

    (Inside that consolidation, we have failed tests of the resistance zone with price falling back into the smaller range. This also leans towards bears.)  What was the trigger for the trade? 

    The conditions for at least a short term bottom were there. I think I mentions these conditions before. So, from here on, any excuse to buy became a good reason to buy. Bulls soon gave signs of life (Look Dec. 1, 4H chart). WD Gann often passed on the 1st impulsive wave, and enter on the retracement. I did the same. Fortunately the market retraced significantly. This was the trigger for the trade.

    What also happens, remember I trade daily charts, is that inside these consolidations, lower time frames can often have clean trends to trade as price rises and falls within the higher time frame pattern. 

    You’re right. I’m sorry, I was dragging you to my 4H charts … 🙁

    Your trade certainly can work, anything can happen. 

    Who said “It’s better to be lucky than good”? … 🙂

    This was, as the chart explained, a support holding or failing trade setup.  I didn’t take a position and

    Ok.

    don’t just take a position because price hits a support/resistance zone.

    Me neither. I went long because price hit a support, and the rest of the studies.

    Yup. And this curbs my enthusiasm. I had an initial profit target in the vicinity of the 4th swing high (Nov.28), as the Wolffe Waves call for a test of the trend line from the 1st swing low (Nov. 17) to the 4th swing high (Nov. 28).
    (The weekly chart showed momentum into support, did not break support but also was not rejected.)  I keep it simple. 

    What is the purpose of keeping it simple? After all, the more indicators, studies, strategies telling you what the market is supposed to do, the higher the level of confidence to take the trade. Am I right?

    What I wrote is how I look at things. 

    Thank you for sharing your insights. At the end, I think we all process the same information differently. The sharing of ideas enriches us both … 🙂

    If this was an actual inflection point

    “Inflection point”? … I’m sorry. I lost you … I first came to the knowledge of this concept in Calculus … According to Merriam-Webster-Treviño an inflection point is  a point on a curve that separates an arc concave upward from one concave downward and vice versa.

    with a greater imbalance of one or the other, I would like to see something happen that shows it.

    “See something happen” … like what?

    I went back to the daily chart, and saw everything, but concluded nothing … what did you see?

    (As we watch the daily chart, we want to see some type of action indicating which side the imbalance is.)  Same as you..nothing.  So the question is what prompted a long trade for you?

    I don’t remember where I read that megaphones are usually reverse patterns. With this in mind I previously wrote : “This megaphone started on Nov. 17 and possibly ended on Nov. 30. Also, this expanding triangle can be seen as a “Wolffe Wave” setup, or as “3 Little Indians”. In any case, this seems to be a reversing pattern at previous support (May 25th), and just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement (2015 Low – 2017 High).”
    Also, the megaphones was forming at previously support (May 21).
    And last. Draw a falling trend line from Jun. 28 to Nov. 9. There’s plenty of room to the upside.

    And did you see anything of interest?
    (You can see these either at the close on daily or smaller time frames – failed tests of lows/highs, breakouts of smaller ranges.)  Nothing.  Price is just oscillating in a range for me.

    Ok.

    PS: Is there a way to upload pics, charts?

    No.  You can screen capture with Jing and upload there.
    “Upload there” … “There” where? … I’m sorry. I’m not familiar with your site yet … Thank you for your patience.

    PS1: Thank you for your prompt replies. Please don’t hesitate to delay your replies to address other subscribers. I’ll wait until my turn comes up again … 🙂

    Cordial Greetings,
    Rolando 🙂

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