Sept 13 – Sept 18
How did these do?
EURUSD – Range continues
GBPNZD – Price bottomed out into a range which changes the outlook from a pullback play to a range play. Four hour chart, price tests highs and fails. 170 pips to lows
GBPUSD – Support holding or failing setup requires monitoring four hour chart. No entry at the lows. Price takes out a swing highs from Sept 11, pullbs back and finds support. 139 upside pips before price stops.
NZDCHF – Was looking to short but price reversed and never looked back.
426 pips potential this past week with these Forex setups. The GBP meltdown was a surprise although if you were a lower time frame momentum trader, you probably enjoyed those moves.
We have kept to the same trading approach for years and having a plan helps prevent impulse trading and you will, at times, miss those 400+ pip moves.
There has been confusion about the tally of potential pips every week. It is impossible to measure adverse excursion that leads to a stop out because there are many ways to decide on a stop. Most traders use too tight of a stop. I use a multiple of ATR and very very rarely get stopped out of a trade for the full risk. In fact, I would I to check my old records for a 1R loss.
What can be measured is how far the price goes in the direction stated. It’s silly to ask the potential loss because there are different measures of what would be a loss level. 1 pip could be a loss level. It also depends on your trigger. How do you enter a trade? If you need exact entries and exits to help you trade, there are many paid services out there.
Sept 6 – Sept 11
Updates
AUDNZD – We did the move up from a pullback and used the four hour chart for our possible entry. There was no early entry near the bottom of the pullback on the lower time frame. We had to wait for the breakout pullback of the downsloping trendline. 34 pips from that break. Traders may be still in that trade as there is still 100 pips to resistance.
AUDUSD – As usual, four hour chart looked at for entry and beautiful failure test of lows. 104 pips potential from reversal to highs.
GBPCHF – Absolute total meltdown
GBPUSD – Absolute total meltdown
NZDJPY – 102 pips downside from break of lows on four hour chart. While trading breakouts on the setup chart requires a differnet pattern (basing, failure tests), using as a trade entry trigger on lower time frames to enter the higher time frame pattern is legit. Something you have seen for years on this site.
NZDUSD – Price was right at our zone and test of lows and rejection four hour is the obvious entry. 88 pips to highs on break.
USDCAD – We wanted a deeper pullback and got it. Entry on four hour chart at failure test on Sept 9. Break of failure test candle lows to lows is 98 pips
USDCHF – While price did rally, there was no strength or entry to ride it.
504 pips potential last week with some of our pairs not doing much of anything. That has been the case for several weeks now.
We never changed our approach and continue to use the same analysis. We change nothing even if the market tempts us to.
The key is to have your trading plan, and trade that plan. While you may miss the opposite move in price, you stay on the side of consistency.
