Sept 13 – Sept 18
How did these do?
EURUSD – Range continues
GBPNZD – Price bottomed out into a range which changes the outlook from a pullback play to a range play. Four hour chart, price tests highs and fails. 170 pips to lows
GBPUSD – Support holding or failing setup requires monitoring four hour chart. No entry at the lows. Price takes out a swing highs from Sept 11, pullbs back and finds support. 139 upside pips before price stops.
NZDCHF – Was looking to short but price reversed and never looked back.
426 pips potential this past week with these Forex setups. The GBP meltdown was a surprise although if you were a lower time frame momentum trader, you probably enjoyed those moves.
We have kept to the same trading approach for years and having a plan helps prevent impulse trading and you will, at times, miss those 400+ pip moves.
There has been confusion about the tally of potential pips every week. It is impossible to measure adverse excursion that leads to a stop out because there are many ways to decide on a stop. Most traders use too tight of a stop. I use a multiple of ATR and very very rarely get stopped out of a trade for the full risk. In fact, I would I to check my old records for a 1R loss.
What can be measured is how far the price goes in the direction stated. It’s silly to ask the potential loss because there are different measures of what would be a loss level. 1 pip could be a loss level. It also depends on your trigger. How do you enter a trade? If you need exact entries and exits to help you trade, there are many paid services out there.
Sept 6 – Sept 11
AUDNZD – We did the move up from a pullback and used the four hour chart for our possible entry. There was no early entry near the bottom of the pullback on the lower time frame. We had to wait for the breakout pullback of the downsloping trendline. 34 pips from that break. Traders may be still in that trade as there is still 100 pips to resistance.
AUDUSD – As usual, four hour chart looked at for entry and beautiful failure test of lows. 104 pips potential from reversal to highs.
GBPCHF – Absolute total meltdown
GBPUSD – Absolute total meltdown
NZDJPY – 102 pips downside from break of lows on four hour chart. While trading breakouts on the setup chart requires a differnet pattern (basing, failure tests), using as a trade entry trigger on lower time frames to enter the higher time frame pattern is legit. Something you have seen for years on this site.
NZDUSD – Price was right at our zone and test of lows and rejection four hour is the obvious entry. 88 pips to highs on break.
USDCAD – We wanted a deeper pullback and got it. Entry on four hour chart at failure test on Sept 9. Break of failure test candle lows to lows is 98 pips
USDCHF – While price did rally, there was no strength or entry to ride it.
504 pips potential last week with some of our pairs not doing much of anything. That has been the case for several weeks now.
We never changed our approach and continue to use the same analysis. We change nothing even if the market tempts us to.
The key is to have your trading plan, and trade that plan. While you may miss the opposite move in price, you stay on the side of consistency.
Hi do you have a site where you mentor people ?I would love to be a member.
Hey Maxwell. Thanks for the vote of confidence! No, I don’t have a membership site nor a mentoring opportunity.
Thanks so much for this, i found it helpful…
Hi SD – I hope I find you well!
I am missing some triggers on the H4 time frames.
Where can I read about the triggers , I mean the patterns, etc.
I am not sure what you mean. If I am understanding correctly….a trigger can be anything that shows a shift in the balance of power. From failed breakouts to trend line breaks and a pattern shift of higher highs and lows to the opposite..all on a lower time frame in the direction you are looking to trade on higher time frames….can be a trigger.
Thanks, SD, your answer was exactly on point!!
Hi SD, I hope I find you well!
There must be something wrong with the website today. The images are not showing at all.
Can you please check it and advise.
Thank you in advance!!
Thanks. It was a server issue where the CSS file was not being served.
Hi RKay and Shane,
I am absolutely mpressed by your generosity with your knowledge. Very rare in this mean world
HIE HOW DO YOU SCAN THE MARKET WITH YOUR TRENDLINES AND HORIZONTAL LINES TO LOOK FOR TRADES
I just scroll through a list of currencies for the website. My own trading covers futures, stocks, and ETF lists. I look for big moves in price, consolidations, pullbacks, and a trend structure. If I can see it in one second, I will look deeper at the chart to decide on a trading tactic.
why did you draw downward trendline to go Long and wrote Long Bitcoin last week and now you say price never breached horizontal line for long entry?
I liked setup last week and took the trade and it was a loss, not a big deal. I believe you should write a loss in your description and not pretend break of horizontal line was your entry. What was the point of drawing trendline and saying Long; if your entry was break of horizontal line? very similar things with some other setups…
One more question, if last week potential on your setups was 504 pips, how many pips was potential loss for your pairs? I would like to understand your math.
Thank you and have a nice day
BTC is in an obvious range and we’ve never entered off a trend line break in a ranging market. We look for basing at resistance as written about hundreds of times. Other than that, wait for breakout and pullback.
You can also see how close price is to a zone that has repeatedly rejected price.
Trend line breaks are good tools on a simple or a complex correction.
Even if you traded the break, price moved 3% in your favour. Surely you had some form of risk management as price literally rejected at the resistance line.
Why should I write a loss if there was price movement where you could reduce risk? I am sure you had a profit taking or risk management plan for the trade especially considering overhead resistance.
I have never written I take all of them. I have never talked about potential loss because every “trader” will have different entries, exits, management.
Anyhow, you clearly doubt the voracity of what is posted and this is probably not a good fit for you. There are plenty of places that will give you exact entry and exit criteria if that’s what you need.
I know you use trendlines as entries and not SR
Incorrect. I DO use S/R if there is basing under resistance or above support. I also use support and resistance with failure tests. I also play pullbacks and basing after breaks. That’s been made clear.
I know you use trendlines
Correct. I do use trend line triggers. What I don’t do is take trades right into resistance unless, as noted, there is basing
504 pips potential based on what?
Based on positive price excursion from a standard entry level.
If you don’t say what was your entry and stop loss
I use ATR stops. I’ve written about them. Again, I have never said I take all these trades. Heard of overall exposure?
I am sure many people don’t understand what risk and reward
If people don’t understand risk and POTENTIAL reward, they should not be trading.
Misleading? This is free. There is zero benefit for me to mislead. If someone feels that these setups are calls, they are incorrect.
Bottom line. This is free. Some find value. I don’t need to give my entries and exits and those serve nobody. Again, if you find value, great. If not, great. This is not for you.
On the July 19 update you finally posted up bitcoin after avoiding it for a long time cause it was ranging. You posted it just before the breakout and i know you update results for the week to cover price move from the other week. i am so happy to tell you that i am still long in Bit @9642 thanks to you. I stayed out until you posted again so good timing. Thank you very much!!!
Great to hear! Yes, the updates for the previous weeks moves just covers the moves, not exits. I expect many will have their own exit strategies and Bitcoin gave zero reason to exit. It wasn’t posted in this weeks setups because the break and price move was underway. Many weeks, the setups that trigger don’t have an exit by the end of the week and carry over.
Hey boss, great job and thank you for help.
I have some questions about Trading Plan if you don’t mind, I just cant find anywhere info and don’t know anyone to ask directly except you here. What do you think about choosing 4 different strategies/entries for 4 different stages of market: breakout,trend,reversal,range? Or would you focus on 1 market stage and trade more strategies of same kind? Would it be better to trade multiple strategies on fewer pairs or multiple pairs with fewer strategies?
Do you care about specific pairs in your portfolio or you trade all 28 majors/crosses as long as you don’t take correlated trades at the time?
I wish there is some article about it, or you can let me know if there is something actually.
Thanks a lot, have a nice day!
I made a post on that question: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/different-trading-strategies/
what do you think about gold is it going to break and retest the up trendline on the 4hr time frame or continue the uptrend
Who knows. The volatility is not ramping up that points to an end of the up move in price. The weekly is getting a little heated so we could be looking at a pullback or further basing. Stay with the trend on your time frame.
O.M.G thank you so much for the help because right now it is in the consolidation period on 4hr horizontal channel though the overall trend is up . thank you for the help you have given the trading community hope its still going on till forever
Hey SD, your charts are so clean, simple and easy to follow, keeping it simple is really the key in trading! Thank you for your help through your site.. just wanted to ask if you have any paid services?
Thanks. I just note the trend, note price behaviour, look for simple patterns, stay on the sidelines until a trigger. No need to complicate it. As for paid, I have been asked that many times over the years and no, I will never do that. I may eventually make a course, maybe, but that’s as far as it would go.
Hi, would you recommend a 0.01 lots size on a $200 for swinging trade?
Your risk per trade is going to be determined by you and your comfort level. Some traders trade .5% of account size while others trade 2-3-5%. Position sizing has no one size fits all.
You are the Great and Legend God Bless you.
Excellent information in this site and Thanks very much for helping the trading community and specifically sending Free weekly calls without missing any week. I am still in trailing wheels. At this point I am trying to enter by using some indicators on 1 H time frame based on your weekly setup. Which is not appropriate I know. Still struggling to place SL and TP. Also trying some KISS strategies you posted on this site by combining your weekly analysis. Additionally looking some templates in Forex Factory . Hope if I learn your price strategy course completely then I can place trades efficiently.
Trade Setup : GBPCHF – Support Holding Trade, need rejection around the zone. Lower time frame entry.
Hope we are looking for a long entry if this daily support holds. May be we can enter by following pin bar or Bullish engulfment on H1/H4 charts with some basic MAs.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
Hope RKay is busy, I dont want to waste his time, fellow experiencing traders those who are making pips, please suggest me how you guys are entering and exiting trades. That would be very helpful. I am following for the past 3 weeks.
RKay has been gone for a few years.
My question is why you are doing something you know is not appropriate? If you want to use one hour chart entries, either look at four hour chart setups or be well versed in price action trading. I personally don’t look at anything lower than four hours in Forex.
The GBPCHF chart was a support holding trade which also includes the failure of support holding. You always want to consider the opposite scenario.
There was no clear entry on the four hour chart. If I look at the one hour chart, there is a range that forms on support, a double bottom and the entry is an upside breakout of the range. Stop would go near the lows of the range.
Thanks for coming by and I can tell you that 3 weeks, you are just getting your feet wet. I would not bother with Forex Factory or anything like it. Just read the posts on the blog and seek to understand the setups and the explanations that follow in the next update.
Thanks very much RKay for your time to reply my post. I should read completely At least 2-3 times of your price action trading course. And I will follow few more weeks and try to record a journal and find how I can improvise the entries and exits.
You are the legend. Thank you for everything.
May you be blessed by the supreme love and the truth of the cosmos.
Hi, thank you for analysis.
I am little bit confused with AUDJPY and pullback trade you mentioned. Are you looking at it as long bull flag setup or you are going short because trendline was broken and you are shorting until next support level around 72.00?
Thank you, have a nice day.
I am looking at it as a long bull flag setup. I don’t trade line breaks as a setup but do use them as triggers into trades.
This was the best week I have ever had! Please don’t charge for these setups because I am learning so much from you.
Great to hear!!
hello thnx for ur heads up and trainings, been following a few times and trying out some of the weekly signals in my demo training, this week though 1-6th june 2020 has so far been my best, i have already closed my trades that i took following ur signals;
AUDJPY bought@ 72.40 for 177 pips this is gone as far as 334 pips so far!
AUDNZD bought@ 1.0750 for 38 pips this is gone as far as 133 pips so far!
CADJPY bought @ 78.80 for 147 pips gone 198 pips so far!
EURGBP sold@ 0.8967 for 64 pips gone 100 pips so far!
EURUSD bought @ 1.1160 for 35 pips gone 96 pips so far!
NZDUSD bought@ 0.6310 for 100 pips gone 130 pips so far!
USDCAD sold@ 1.3670 for 73 pips gone 190 pips so far!
gotten 634 pips out of a possible 1181 pips by today! reading the pitchforks to improve on Stoplosses and Takeprofit areas, coz im still getting out prematurely. BUT thnx once again for the lessons, materials, signals. my training is improving considerably.
Hey HUSSEIN! Glad to see you doing really well! Pretty exciting and thanks for sharing!
what is your entry strategy? I am planning to demo trade as well and I would like to follow one entry strategy. Please confirm.
There are many ways and each trader will have their own. Take a look through the blog including: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/dont-need-perfect-entry/
Your entry strategy must be part of your overall trading plan.
can you use the 5 min Bollinger band strategy with indicies????
Don’t take my word for it. Do your testing which part of any trading strategy
Hmm… now it makes more sense to me. Thank you for taking your time and answer.
I checked now the chart and was wondering if tha little pull back visible in 4H and below would have been ok as an entry. I’ve tried puttin the fibonacci retracements and i see that once it touched the 0.38 level, that was also a level visible to the left, and then bounced up. I would have put a screen to let you see but i can’t ahaha.
I get what you are saying. I don’t use Fibs and if you are, waiting for a 38% pullback will have you missing consolidations at momentum highs….which are generally continuations. You are welcome.
Hello! I’m new to your blog. I read your price action course and i’m trying to figure things out. In the signals of May 17 – May 22. (EUR-GPB) What do you mean with any reversal i’d like a short. And what do you mean by range?
Sorry for the bother ahah and also thank you in advance for your time.
Reversal would make this a breakout that failed. Some traders would trade the break back below the top of the blue line will other will use a reversal pattern of some sort.
A range would be any type of consolidated price action, a pause where it’s more sideways. That is the only way to enter a move that is underway. On the posted chart, there was no entry yet on that move up UNLESS you trade end of day closes.