April 5 – April 10
How did these do?
AUDCHF – Range play broke to the upside. Breakout pullback to the upside for 192 pips
AUDJPY – 206 pips upside as price rejected bottom of range. Entry is off four hour chart down trendline (March 25 high to Mar 31 high). Price breaks above, rejects at highs and supports at trendline.
AUDNZD – Was not the start of down move. Price rejects, breaks highs. four hour chart breakout pullback for 142 pips.
EURAUD – No support. Price continued to leak downwards
EURGBP – Price had no intention of moving up.
EURNZD – Price had stalled inside of our potential support zone
GBPCHF – The smaller candles as noted certianly was a sign that price was stalling.
GBPJPY – Failure test at highs started as the week came to an end
GBPNZD – Best move of the week as we were looking short as noted. Failure at highs led to a 420 pip drop.
GBPUSD – Failure test at lows of range lead to 220 pip upside move
USDJPY – Price began to break down end of the week. No entry.
This past week had none of the price moves we’ve seen over the previous weeks. That is to be expected. Some of the setups played out but even off the four hour chart, there was no trigger to trade against. 368 pips was all that was available this past week.
We have a few range plays this week in markets that have had a larger move. Some moves are plotting small range candlesticks. These may hold structure due the uncertainly in the world right now.
March 29 – April 3 2020
How did these do?
AUDCHF – The range continued throughout the week.
AUDJPY – As noted, watching for a short from the triangle. Down on the four hour chart, 8 hours (2 bars) of testing highs and fail is a failure test. 218 downside potential
EURAUD – Price ranged
EURGBP – Was looking long and price just dripped to the downside. Ended in our marked off zone end of week.
EURNZD – Range
GBPCHF – Was looking short knowing price could still run upside. No trade
GBPJPY – Range
GBPUSD – We got the range I was looking for to consider shorting against. Ascending triangle failed and price break of bottom of the up sloping trend line is the entry. 150 potential downside
NZDUSD – Got the short that was being looked for but there was no entry.
This past week saw the USD lose some of its luster which is to be expected after the previous weeks moves. Having your bias in one direction never means ignoring the evolution of the week. As an example, failure for further upside ( USDJPY) opens the door to the opposite move. Failure of one thing to happen should have traders plotting out other scenarios.
Even then, you did entry triggers. For most of these, trend line breaks from the pattern are good entries (we are not trading the trend line itself). All in all, 1230 potential pips.