Dec 15 – Dec 20 2019
How did these do?
AUDUSD – Price put in a rally but has not hit previous high
EURJPY – Pullback occurring
EURUSD – Not much price movement but 40 pips downside
NZDCAD – Price ranged
NZDCHF – Short-lived downside with potential 50
NZDUSD – Price ranged
A fine week capped with a 460 run in the GBPJPY which bumped up the overall potential pips from these setups to 771. Notice that each week, we use the same types of setups and entries. There is no “so we added a moving average”. Lazy pullbacks work when preceded by a momentum move. Strong pullback? Price may range and we can play failure tests. Want to trade breakouts? A simple pattern to use for entry into a higher time frame setup.
Same things every week.
Dec 8 – Dec 13 2019
AUDJPY – Momentum was stepping in all through the first pullback which you can see with the lower shadows. Strong momentum stepped in to the upside
AUDNZD – Price launched upside from the noted zone. Only entry off the four hour was break of 1.0430 level for 53 pips. If you watched the zone on a lower time frame, one hour, you had a slightly better entry off the failure test of lows.
AUDUSD – Basing at highs lead to a lazy pullback. When strong mometnum thrusts get a lazy pullback, treat those as flags and in this case, a bull flag. Four hour chart entry was failure test of lows. You could also use the breakout of a range to the upside on a lower time frame to enter a higher time frame pullback. 118 pips potential
EURCHF – The downside was a simple break of lows or trendline off a four hour chart. Ran for 40 pips before reversing
GBPAUD – There was upside of 100 pips before price crashed down
GBPJPY – Price broke the range and based at highs. The one day pullback on the 6th (lower time frame more obvious) resoled into small range. Break of range lead to a 460 pip run in price. If traders were watching the four hour chart, you have a better entry.
A good week with some perfect failure tests set up. Potential of 757 pips but you will never bank each available pip.
A great lesson in EURCAD about how pullbacks fail – momentum steps in.
Dec 1 – Dec 6 2019
AUDCHF – Price continued to base and even with the failure test of lows, there is no continuation. There is also no entry as the price did not break the high of the failure test candle
AUDJPY – Bullish on a break but you can see the obvious weakness on the closes.
CADJPY – Initially bullish due to basing. However, momentum down and then momentum up followed by a failure test is a picture-perfect short. 60
EURCAD – Was a bear flag short but what disqualifies a flag? Momentum stepping in which happened here. There is an entry short however it was missed.
EURJPY – There was upside potential but no entry
GBPAUD – Breakout fails and price pulls back to previous support. Obvious reversal candlestick gets you into the long before the next breakout 242. Four-hour chart traders would have seen momentum off lows, basing and continuation which works out the same as trading off the daily
GBPCAD – Price resolves upside with momentum. Lazy pullback trade entry for 115
GBPCHF – Breakout pullback for 130
GBPJPY – Price held the breakout with low movement. Aggressive traders played the breakout of the post-breakout range for 130
EURUSD – Double bottom held perfect with failure test of lows for 80
I didn’t expect much this past week with the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. 90 pips plus the simple trade in Bitcoin.
A few lessons from last week. If expecting a pullback, if it ranges, the pullback fails. You then turn to a range trading method where we look for basing and tests of highs and lows. If you are able to see these failures, it will improve your trading and chances at trades.
Great examples of how basing below resistance (or above support) after momentum has the edge in the direction of the momentum move.
Nov 24 – Nov 29 2019
Results for these setups
AUDCHF – Price hit the top of the channel and ranged
BTCUSD – $480 run after the support zone held. Four-hour chart, higher low put in after reversal candlestick. Entry as price closes above the noted support level.
EURCHF – The pullback was weak as evident from the shadows. This turns into a pullback failure when we note a trading range. The next setup would have then been a failure test of highs for a short. Never got it this week.
GBPAUD – Failure test of lows did not happen for a long. Breakout to the downside and pullback did not happen.
GBPCAD – Pullback ended in a range
GBPJPY – Was edging longs so watching the four-hour chart for uptrending price action. Price put in a higher low and break of high is an entry. This is a front-run of a breakout which I have talked about in the blog and in our weekly updates. 90 pip potential.
GBPUSD – Was watching four-hour chart but could not see any of our entries present
USDCAD – Range
We didn’t see much in the way of momentum stepping in this week.
Grinding price action for the most part but 315 pips potential can be a decent payoff depending on your trading size.
We actually posted a Bitcoin chart this week after the strong move lower. Looking for a trap of shorts and powering a long trade.