Oct 6 – Oct 11 2019
How did these do?
AUDNZD – The pullback terminated in a perfect complex pullback A-B=C-D. On the four hour chart, you can see the higher low put in on Oct 9 and the entry is a break to new highs giving us an up trending pattern. Price has only gone up 38 pips
EURGBP – The four hour chart comes into play (again) on a daily chart setup. As you know, when using trend lines, you want to have the last swing low before the new high as part of the line. That is why you get fanning trend lines. Using the trend line break as an entry and ensuring price breaks the four hour low on Oct 9, a sell stop order is used. Price crashed for 240 pips. IF you missed that entry, the small consolidation break is another entry.
EURUSD – Wanted a short and was using the four hour range for entry however there was no test of highs or basing at support for an entry. Didn’t see a long entry.
GBPCHF – Was considering short and was thinking breakout pullback. Price actually puts in a complex pullback which is bullish. Price broke support of first leg down and based under what could now be considered resitance. Basing under resistance is bullish (basing on support is bearish) . Enter inside of basing. Price drives 475 pips upside.
GBPNZD – With price basing at highs of a momentum move on the weekly, a channel on the daily, the long was in play. Break of four hour trendline and then the break of Oct 7 high leads to 396 upside.
NZDUSD – No weakness to short
625 pips potential this week while some of the pairs did absolutely nothing.
Some great lessons here in one week which covers a lot of the lessons we’ve had over the many years we’ve posted these.
Note that even with small gains in price, you still have room to remove risk in most of these trades due to the higher time frame approach.
The potential pips is not what you’d have gotten. What that means is you add opportunity from 0-625 and from my experience, many of you that have been here get a little over half.
Wonderful blog, and contents. Thanks
But, I have been having issues viewing weekly trade updates. I follow the link from my email, but the images or, and contents are blur. In fact, I havent been able to go through any weekly trade updates.
How do I resolve this?
There is an email box on the trade updates page. Enter your email and the blur goes away
Sounds like you have a lot going on to determine setups. Any way you can simplify your approach? Does your approach have an edge? How do you know what a key level is? Why the need for so much supporting (possibly or not even relevant) variables? You can’t micromanage your entry price and frankly, a zone of price is more realistic.
If you are getting faked out, my guess is your stop is too close. I use ATR stops. Generally 2X ATR. I don’t recall ever being faked out.
Thanks. Keeping it simple. How did I do? This is not that type of site. I will occasionally post about a trade if there is a learning aspect to it but I am not into wagging.
Thanks for the words. As mentioned in the preamble before the setup charts, these are daily price charts.
Right back at you. One day pullback on Jan 14. Drop to four hour chart, momentum off lows with basing at high of momentum. Enter in base when price breaks low of base and recovers.
Whats going on with your blog? Have you sold your blog because the signals are ghosted and not delivered to my email anymore. Can’t get your signals on your website either. Is it a paid service now?
Hey Gert. The emails are going out and it is ghosted but open when the email is entered. It is “cookied” so once you add your email, you should be able to access all the time. Paid? Never happen. This will always be free.
Thanks for assisting traders, please what is the correct input to use for MACD and EMA crossing
There is no correct setting for any indicator. There are many strategies using MACD and EMA on this blog.
Amazing blog – thanks for doing this. 🙂
I have a question regarding this weeks setups. Am I right assuming several of your setups are daily failure tests of highs? Either after a strong move / or a failure test of a clear high on the chart? Or am I missing some context?
You are not missing anything. That would then make them counter trend which generally means quicker taking profits. Keep in mind that as price evolves during the week, outlook on type of trade to take can change. The key is that every setup, even if price evolves into something else during the week, will use the exact trading techniques that are always used here. 🙂
Hi SD, I hope I find you well. This week’s GBPJPY refers. What do we need to see on the chart in order to recognize price acceptance?
Thanks in advance.
Give me your thoughts
SD, I am thinking of a failure test of lows on the four hour or pull back and long.
That is certainly 2 ways to look at it.
Good morning SD.IS XAUUSD worth trading?Thank you?
What does your trading plan say? I also think most markets should be on your radar.
Thank you SD for this awesome blog. Am new to trading, still demo trading. Sometimes when I place a stop, am taking out of the trade even when price did not come to that area. Pls does it have something to do with the spread?
Generally, yes. That means you are using too tight of stops looking for a larger position sizing. Consider using ATR stop: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/stop-loss-placement-options/
Thank you so much
Hi SD, I hope I find you well. I need your guidance on last week’s CADJPY. Where was the entry on this pair when it went long?
Four hour chart: http://forextradingstrategies4u.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2019-11-11_12-06-41.jpg
Hi SD – Thanks for your response but I think you made an error because the CADJPY did not have a trendline. Please have a look again.
No, I did not make an error. Yes, there is a trendline. You just have not defined what makes a trendline to you. You do you. I will do me. Thanks.
Sir when you don’t see swing high for down trendline, do you go lower
Yes, sort of. You can infer from the bars what the lower time frame swings looked liked.
SD – I meant when you sent the setup there was no trendline. So in such cases we can draw our own trendlines on the four hour so that we can get an entry.
Thanks once again.
Breaks of trendlines on lower time frames are triggers into a large time frame pattern (like how we can use a lower time frame range breakout to enter a higher timeframe pullback). They highlight a change of rhythm in the market. Sorry, I thought you said there was no trendline that could be drawn. 🙂
Please,is it important to consider the weekly and monthly time frames when analysing?
How would you consider them? What would you do differently? What information would you be looking for?
SD, This week’s GBPCHF refers. What do you mean by “don’t fade initial breaks of triangles”
Thank you in advance.
When triangles break, they may pause but generally don’t retrace. If you fade momentum moves as a rule after triangles break, it is not a wise choice. Pent up energy in the market.
SD – I hope I find you well. Last weeks setups did not have trend lines on the GBPUSD and GBPJPY and in your comments after the week you mention of trend line break. Was the lesson about us drawing our own trend lines? Because after the trend line breaks the setups did ok.
Trend line breaks as a means of trade entry, not as setup itself.
GBP?JPY -Monday night, do you still believe I should go long now for another long upswing.
I believe that you should take these setups and design your own approach to trading them. We are very careful to not give advice involving you or anybody else putting on risk.
SD – I am not fully aware of the head and shoulder type pattern. Can explain more about it for future use.
You can read about the head and shoulder pattern here: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/head-and-shoulders-pattern/
I don’t trade it the typical way (waiting for the neckline break). I look for a price failing at the right shoulder and enter long before it breaks the neckline.
Hello SD – Last weeks CADJPY was tradeable as the currency kept on grinding higher with pauses in between. Why do you think it was a bad trade?
I didn’t say it was a bad trade. I didn’t see an entry into it on the four hour.
SD – What is the difference between these 3 terms you usually mention: pullback – pause and range?
Thank you in advance.
See here: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/consolidations-pullbacks-trading/
The main difference between a pause and a range – I just use different words to describe the same thing however a range can be days/weeks of sideways action. A pause can just be a day.
SD, I just found your site, I’m new to forex trading, and still learning and I have a few questions. Would there be a place I could contact you (by email for example), just to clear up a few simple questions I have.
Thanks for this great resource btw, I’m learning a lot reading through it all.
Glad you enjoy the blog and welcome. Please ask your questions in the comments so I can use them as a blog post. I am sure others have the same questions.
SD. For trendline breaks up or down you have to wait for the daily candle?
Nope. I like to use the four hour chart on trend line entries (remember that I don’t use trend lines for setups…breaks are a trigger) and support/resistance levels. I use daily a lot simply because I can afford the risk profiles. But no, use four hour for entries because you can see the imbalance of buyers and sellers better if you are not able to infer from the daily.
S. D. This makes sense now. Last week I entered a trade on the EURGBP on the four hour chart. On the four hour chart it looked as if price had gone completely over the trend line and was just waiting for follow up and on the daily price had just gone a bit over the trend line. There was no follow up of price downwards and hence I lost the trade.
I am going to take a guess here….was it Oct 3 when you saw the momentum move?
S.D. Yes it was on Oct 3!!
I have written a few times that when you see price move from one extreme to another, like that momentum candlestick that wiped out 60 hours of previous trading gains, expect a reaction against the move. It’s no different than a market in a range and price running from resistance right through support….that is not a trade to take.
S.D. Thanks for the commentary you add after every week. I still get confused as to when to use the four hour and the daily candles for entry. I don’t know how you can make it simpler for me to understand.
No problem…..use the four hour chart side by side with the daily chart. Don’t look for setups on the four hour, just look for signs that the desired direction on the daily is setting up. Quick example….pullback trade on the daily chart. Drop to a four hour chart to see price resuming direction—a range breakout for example. How about a daily chart support holding or failing trading? Looking long, look for momentum or failure test of lows. Make sense?