March 8 – March 13 2020
Results
AUDNZD – The pullback failed and price fell back into support. Price broke support and gave a breakout/pullback trade entry with the only clear entry being a break of lows. 200 pips to the bottom.
AUDUSD – As per the setup chart, looking short. Failure test entry on March 9 was a clear entry for a 464 pip price drop.
BTCUSD – The pullback was indeed a move for the short side with a $3800 drop from the base at lows of momentum at the start of the week
CHFJPY – Price broke downside from the triangle for a great price move but there was no entry even on the four hour chart
EURGBP – Basing at momentum highs leans towards more upside as we noted. Price based just below resistance where astute traders position. 329 upside.
EURNZD – Would have loved to catch that massive price spike but no position available. What we did get was a pullback to the top of the range on the four hour chart. Took a while to get a trade going off the test but the result was a 290 pip upside jump.
EURUSD – Price did pullback to our zone and signs of weakness were present. We would prefer to not trade a pullback that occurs with momentum as mentioned before. Four hour chart gave no entry for the downside.
GBPCAD – Expected reject of highs after gap up. As noted on setup chart, we did have suspicious of “could reject”. Four hour chart showed lower high and break of low would confirm downside. 790 pip downside.
GBPCHF – Wrote on setup chart to monitor for breakdown. Clear basing at support with a downside breakdown of 370 pips from March 8 lows.
GBPJPY – Expected breakdown as noted. Unable to position for intial shot down but price retraced up into backside of previous support. Price held and 414 pip downside result.
NZDCAD – The insane spike on open are not to be played with. Always wait to see what develops. Price failed to put in a new high and break of support on four hour was clear. 217 pip drop if you wait for breakdown. More pips if you shorted the four hour pullback.
NZDUSD – Again, the opening spike must not be traded. Obvious failure test then lead to a 317 pip drop.
The exciting thing about these markets is that approach that you’ve read on these weekly setups does not change – and they continue to work!
Will you miss great moves because of lack of entry? Yes. But you need to have an approach that you follow. If you don’t, you will lose out eventually because if you don’t have a reason to enter, a reason that uses market mechanics, you are guessing. 1127 pips available with clear entries and setups this past week. Missed trades due to lack of clear entries.
Hi S.D,
Wonderful blog, and contents. Thanks
But, I have been having issues viewing weekly trade updates. I follow the link from my email, but the images or, and contents are blur. In fact, I havent been able to go through any weekly trade updates.
How do I resolve this?
There is an email box on the trade updates page. Enter your email and the blur goes away
Sounds like you have a lot going on to determine setups. Any way you can simplify your approach? Does your approach have an edge? How do you know what a key level is? Why the need for so much supporting (possibly or not even relevant) variables? You can’t micromanage your entry price and frankly, a zone of price is more realistic.
If you are getting faked out, my guess is your stop is too close. I use ATR stops. Generally 2X ATR. I don’t recall ever being faked out.
Thanks. Keeping it simple. How did I do? This is not that type of site. I will occasionally post about a trade if there is a learning aspect to it but I am not into wagging.
Thanks for the words. As mentioned in the preamble before the setup charts, these are daily price charts.
Right back at you. One day pullback on Jan 14. Drop to four hour chart, momentum off lows with basing at high of momentum. Enter in base when price breaks low of base and recovers.
Whats going on with your blog? Have you sold your blog because the signals are ghosted and not delivered to my email anymore. Can’t get your signals on your website either. Is it a paid service now?
Hey Gert. The emails are going out and it is ghosted but open when the email is entered. It is “cookied” so once you add your email, you should be able to access all the time. Paid? Never happen. This will always be free.
Thanks for assisting traders, please what is the correct input to use for MACD and EMA crossing
There is no correct setting for any indicator. There are many strategies using MACD and EMA on this blog.
Hi Shane.
Amazing blog – thanks for doing this. 🙂
I have a question regarding this weeks setups. Am I right assuming several of your setups are daily failure tests of highs? Either after a strong move / or a failure test of a clear high on the chart? Or am I missing some context?
Thanks.
René
You are not missing anything. That would then make them counter trend which generally means quicker taking profits. Keep in mind that as price evolves during the week, outlook on type of trade to take can change. The key is that every setup, even if price evolves into something else during the week, will use the exact trading techniques that are always used here. 🙂
Hi SD, I hope I find you well. This week’s GBPJPY refers. What do we need to see on the chart in order to recognize price acceptance?
Thanks in advance.
Give me your thoughts
SD, I am thinking of a failure test of lows on the four hour or pull back and long.
That is certainly 2 ways to look at it.
Good morning SD.IS XAUUSD worth trading?Thank you?
What does your trading plan say? I also think most markets should be on your radar.
Thank you SD for this awesome blog. Am new to trading, still demo trading. Sometimes when I place a stop, am taking out of the trade even when price did not come to that area. Pls does it have something to do with the spread?
Generally, yes. That means you are using too tight of stops looking for a larger position sizing. Consider using ATR stop: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/stop-loss-placement-options/
Thank you so much
Hi SD, I hope I find you well. I need your guidance on last week’s CADJPY. Where was the entry on this pair when it went long?
Four hour chart: http://forextradingstrategies4u.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2019-11-11_12-06-41.jpg
Hi SD – Thanks for your response but I think you made an error because the CADJPY did not have a trendline. Please have a look again.
No, I did not make an error. Yes, there is a trendline. You just have not defined what makes a trendline to you. You do you. I will do me. Thanks.
Sir when you don’t see swing high for down trendline, do you go lower
Yes, sort of. You can infer from the bars what the lower time frame swings looked liked.
SD – I meant when you sent the setup there was no trendline. So in such cases we can draw our own trendlines on the four hour so that we can get an entry.
Thanks once again.
Breaks of trendlines on lower time frames are triggers into a large time frame pattern (like how we can use a lower time frame range breakout to enter a higher timeframe pullback). They highlight a change of rhythm in the market. Sorry, I thought you said there was no trendline that could be drawn. 🙂
Please,is it important to consider the weekly and monthly time frames when analysing?
How would you consider them? What would you do differently? What information would you be looking for?
SD, This week’s GBPCHF refers. What do you mean by “don’t fade initial breaks of triangles”
Thank you in advance.
When triangles break, they may pause but generally don’t retrace. If you fade momentum moves as a rule after triangles break, it is not a wise choice. Pent up energy in the market.
SD – I hope I find you well. Last weeks setups did not have trend lines on the GBPUSD and GBPJPY and in your comments after the week you mention of trend line break. Was the lesson about us drawing our own trend lines? Because after the trend line breaks the setups did ok.
Trend line breaks as a means of trade entry, not as setup itself.
GBP?JPY -Monday night, do you still believe I should go long now for another long upswing.
Thanks much.
I believe that you should take these setups and design your own approach to trading them. We are very careful to not give advice involving you or anybody else putting on risk.
SD – I am not fully aware of the head and shoulder type pattern. Can explain more about it for future use.
You can read about the head and shoulder pattern here: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/head-and-shoulders-pattern/
I don’t trade it the typical way (waiting for the neckline break). I look for a price failing at the right shoulder and enter long before it breaks the neckline.
Hello SD – Last weeks CADJPY was tradeable as the currency kept on grinding higher with pauses in between. Why do you think it was a bad trade?
I didn’t say it was a bad trade. I didn’t see an entry into it on the four hour.
SD – What is the difference between these 3 terms you usually mention: pullback – pause and range?
Thank you in advance.
See here: https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/consolidations-pullbacks-trading/
The main difference between a pause and a range – I just use different words to describe the same thing however a range can be days/weeks of sideways action. A pause can just be a day.
SD, I just found your site, I’m new to forex trading, and still learning and I have a few questions. Would there be a place I could contact you (by email for example), just to clear up a few simple questions I have.
Thanks for this great resource btw, I’m learning a lot reading through it all.
Glad you enjoy the blog and welcome. Please ask your questions in the comments so I can use them as a blog post. I am sure others have the same questions.
SD. For trendline breaks up or down you have to wait for the daily candle?
Nope. I like to use the four hour chart on trend line entries (remember that I don’t use trend lines for setups…breaks are a trigger) and support/resistance levels. I use daily a lot simply because I can afford the risk profiles. But no, use four hour for entries because you can see the imbalance of buyers and sellers better if you are not able to infer from the daily.
S. D. This makes sense now. Last week I entered a trade on the EURGBP on the four hour chart. On the four hour chart it looked as if price had gone completely over the trend line and was just waiting for follow up and on the daily price had just gone a bit over the trend line. There was no follow up of price downwards and hence I lost the trade.
I am going to take a guess here….was it Oct 3 when you saw the momentum move?
S.D. Yes it was on Oct 3!!
I have written a few times that when you see price move from one extreme to another, like that momentum candlestick that wiped out 60 hours of previous trading gains, expect a reaction against the move. It’s no different than a market in a range and price running from resistance right through support….that is not a trade to take.
S.D. Thanks for the commentary you add after every week. I still get confused as to when to use the four hour and the daily candles for entry. I don’t know how you can make it simpler for me to understand.
No problem…..use the four hour chart side by side with the daily chart. Don’t look for setups on the four hour, just look for signs that the desired direction on the daily is setting up. Quick example….pullback trade on the daily chart. Drop to a four hour chart to see price resuming direction—a range breakout for example. How about a daily chart support holding or failing trading? Looking long, look for momentum or failure test of lows. Make sense?