Nov 7 – Nov 12 2021
Results
AUDJPY – Zooming into the four hour chart, price had based on top of support. This is bearish. Breakdown lead to 77 pips downside. Price now sitting on our second red line and will bring this pair back for next week.
AUDUSD – The complex correction played out with 107 pips to the downside missing our projected target by 30 pips.
BTCUSD – Price broke the consolidation for a $4700 run. Remember, with Bitcoin, you are either trading it actively or looking to position and hold. We are just looking for entries to hold for these updates.
EURAUD – Price pulled back into our top red line. Zoom into the four hour chart for a trade entry. Breakdown and pullback for 88 pips downside.
EURJPY – Was looking long and price just drifted to the downside.
GBPCAD – As mentioned, this was going to be a tight trade going against the trend. 70 pip bounce long using the daily chart. Higher pips with using the four hour chart.
USDJPY – Failure test at low of range and price hit 104 pips upside. If you played a breakout of lows, keep in mind we don’t just trade a breakout without basing at support or resistance. The ONLY time this is done is as a way to enter a reversal in a pullback.
No entry in Bitcoin last week and 618 potential pips in the Forex setups. A great lesson in stop placement with GBPJPY. Tight stops would have been taken out during the pullback better seen on lower time frames. You can see it on the daily as the green candle that pulls back to the breakout level.
ADUJPY had a triangle break to the downside. My general rule with trading triangles is to go with the flow. The flow is the breakout direction. If against the trend however, the exit is quick upon any obvious intent back in the direction of the trend.
Looking for a breakout in Bitcoin as we are consolidating inside of the range of Oct.
AUDJPY
AUDUSD
BTCUSD
EURAUD
EURJPY
GBPCAD
USDJPY
Oct 31 – Nov 5
BTCUSD – No entry in Bitcoin.
AUDJPY – Reversal at top of triangle leads to a 177 pip drop to downside
EURCHF – Price just ranged at bottom of momentum thrust down
GBPJPY – Price broke the range and leads to 282 pips overall downside. While there was a rally after the break out (breakout pullback which some traders may wait for at the risk of missing trades), you stop loss is above the range on the four hour chart around 156.60. This is a structure stop or you use ATR.
GBPNZD – Price came into the red line zone and bounced for 159 pips potential.
NZDUSD – Price broke downside confirming the trading range you can see on the weekly chart
Late week momentum moves in Forex really threw off some of the patterns being made. 267 pips as price did little except the late week move. Other pairs are simply moving and without a clear entry, jumping into those trades is not a wise move. Pullbacks or consolidations are what we look for.
5 setups this week + Bitcoin and a good week for learning. We have triangles and ranges to help set up trades. Also, watch how the measured move on GBPNZD works out.
BTCUSD
AUDJPY
EURCHF
GBPJPY
GBPNZD
NZDUSD
Oct 24 – Oct 29
- AUDJPY – Price pulled back and eventually consolidated
- AUDUSD – Price reversed with very little momentum
- EURJPY – Price came into the zone and using the four hour chart, trend line break upside hit 94 pips potential before falling
- EURUSD – On the four hour time frame, you can see price rocket from the low of the range, breakout of the highs, and then reverse. I have written before that with breakouts, a move from the bottom that rips through the top will usually fail. The failure led to 128 pips to the downside after price failed back inside.
- GBPJPY – Price made the pattern shown on the chart but no breaks to trade
- GBPNZD – On these types of trades, where we are looking at support or resistance holding or failing, the four hour chart is used. We had the basing at support which is bearish. Price then went upside and then broke through support. No trade.
- NZDUSD – Price ranged
- USDJPY – Four hour trend line break entry for 45 pips and then price failed
546 pips last week and some great lessons on using the four hour chart for daily chart setups/entry zones. Also note how when we talk about basing around support or around resistance, generally price will break through those areas. A lack of strong reaction at these levels, if they are actually valid levels, is a clue.
8 setups this week and some are going to be counter trend continuations. When trading those, ensure that you exit when price direction is turning back in the direction of the trend.
AUDJPY
AUDUSD
EURJPY
EURUSD
GBPJPY
GBPNZD
NZDUSD
USDJPY
Oct 17 – Oct 22 – Updated
- AUDUSD – Great lesson on why we use four hour charts on daily set ups. On the four hour chart, you see a pullback that leads to a continuation trade on the daily. Traders are in the trader prior to the breakout on the daily. We don’t suggest pure breakout plays on your trading timeframe. Breakouts do make a great entry on a lower timeframe into a higher timeframe pullback. 127 pips
- EURJPY – Price consolidated under resistance on the four hour chart. That is statistically bullish plus there was a pullback on the four hour as well. 70 pips to highs before the rollover. This pair was highly extended and we missed that rollover potential.
- EURUSD – Failure test entry on the four hour chart leading to a position before the daily chart breakout. 73 pips upside.
- GBPAUD – Price came right into our red line and found support. Four hour entry off an outside candle lead to 82 pips upside.
- GBPNZD – Looking for continuation. Price on the four hour chart was basing around support which is statistically bearish. 194 pips to the downside
We take what we can get and this week was a shadow of what last week was. 281 pips and this past week was a great example of failures. In the CADJPY as an example, we were looking for resistance to hold. It FAILED to hold and does that mean we ignore what the chart is giving us? No.
You’d be surprised how the failure of an expected pattern can give you a trade. Another example would be a trading range. If price, at resistance, breaks through, we now have a resistance failing set up. From there, we can look for some type of consolidation to take long. If THAT fails to materialize, we can trade back into the range.
A few setups this week as many currency pairs are in current trends. When price continues to make new highs, you need to watch for reversals. Looking to trade a small consolidation as price is trending to enter, is usually a safer bet.
AUDUSD
EURJPY
EURUSD
GBPAUD
GBPNZD
Oct 10 – Oct 15 – Updated
CADCHF – Resistance held and price ranged
BTCUSD – Beautiful failure test entry in the range that lead to a $7000 jump in BTC.
CADJPY – Was looking for resistance to hold and when it didn’t, it was a long setup off an inside bar for 131 pips.
CHFJPY – Same as the CADJPY. Resistance failed and inside bar long setup for 150 pips
955 pips potential last week as currencies made some huge runs. That just brings us a week where price is either extended or has turned into a trading range. This weeks setups include Bitcoin which is basing just under a pivot. Hard to get in on the daily chart when price is running so here is the chance.
CADCHF
BTCUSD
CADJPY
CHFJPY
Thanks for the setups.
BTCUSD has a bear flag that got broken last week. My final target is 12k.
Certainly not a far fetched outcome for Bitcoin. While I don’t usually make projections, 12-17K is doable.
Signals 16-21 January, please explain the following:
AUDJPY on the monthly timeframe is in downtrend, making lower highs. On the weekly timeframe, it makes double top. On the daily timeframe, if you draw a trendline joining the lows of 3 December, 20 December and 10 January, it has just break the trendline. What are your criteria to look for upside?
I submit that the monthly has been moving higher off the lows of March 2020 and is putting in higher highs and lows with over a 2000 pip run. I also submit that the monthly is a range at highs.
I don’t consider monthly outside of structures…such as the consolidation.
The weekly double top has done it’s job. I’d have been more impressed with the double top if there was an actual momentum break of highs and immediate rejection. If that had occurred, we may have seen a true down trend form. I see more the weekly forming a triangle.
If I were a weekly chart trader, I would have shorted the recent rally due to the strong move to the downside.
Daily. My trendlines rules don’t just connect any high or low. I have to be able to connect the last low into a high for a valid uptrend line. Your trend line, for me, is not valid.
Because your trend line is not valid for me, this recent move was, at first, the making of a complex correction. However, once price started basing on support, that is bearish. The momentum move down on the last day of the week, confirmed the break.
I am a swing trader. While I take the trend into consideration, I have other price action and structures I concern myself with. I know my time frame. I can easily trade a bull flag on a daily during a down trend on the weekly. It’s paid off extremely well over the years not only in FX and Crypto, but also stocks. I don’t trade futures much anymore.
How is audjpy in a downtrend on Monthly. It is a clear uptrend having broken all kinds of previous highs.
EURGBP longs will not be ready until the price takes out the Double Bottom it established in 2020. Once that is done, it will be a great trade for the year, all the way to 0.90
I see where you are going with that. Take out the potential support, reverse, and look to trap shorts who must reverse. What you trade in time frame dependent. Most certainly as a swing trader there were clear opportunities to buy. Keep in mind the currencies are driven by different factors that have a greater effect on sustained price moves than standard technical analysis.
Well, as I had pointed out eurgbp did take out that DB. But euro is still very weak bcos of the war. I will wait until the war situation cools down and then look for setups in euro to buy
Yes. One look at the Euro futures and it’s easy to see how weak the Euro is.
By the same token, the Yen futures is also weak.
Depending on your time horizon, playing long in a EUR cross can work.
Traders just have to ensure they have a trade manage plan or they can get eaten up.
Is basing at highs or lows essentially a flag pattern, traded in the usual manner? Fantastic content all round, thank you for your efforts!
Appreciate it Ben.
Basing would generally mean a horizontal range but they take many forms. Patterns are rarely perfect and I find the uglier it is, the better it can trade.
The basing can have you enter a position before breaks that will lure in other traders. Failure test of the lows of the base, a break of a previous candle high, can be entries. I also don’t look for a perfect entry location. As long as I have direction right and use smart stops, I don’t have to pick the top or bottom.
That said, basing, flags, etc, I will generally call all of them a consolidation for simplicity sake.
Hi. For wk 10th Oct, you mentioned that you traded inside bar set ups for CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY for very good pip gains. I’m learning so would really appreciate it if you could confirm the date and timeframe, which these occurred please.
I don’t have the time to go back over old charts however any time frame entry other than the daily, will be the four hour chart. Inside bars are obvious.
Keep in mind that all you have with an inside bar, is a lower time frame consolidation. You can play the break of the inside bar OR head to a lower time frame to see the consolidation.
Hi SD,
I just discovered this website. Do you typically send out alerts of when you enter these given trades?
Thanks for coming by. The only time I update is on the weekend. Every trader will have their own way of triggering into the trades. As you go through the history of this section, you will read about the few triggers that are used. This was never about having a trade alert service.
Thank you so much i find it promising since
It provides the signals with educational touches.
So clever idea and productive
Keep it up you deserve all support
Thanks for all the information you provide.
I started trading in May this year. Am only on a demo account for the time being. I have learnt alot from Youtube etc and think that I have a gresp of the basics.
I started off alright but now I am making the wrong decisions, and am finding it increasingly difficult to read the charts. It’s all becoming a nightmare.
Any advice would be most welcome.
Thanks so much ❤️❤️📈📈
This is absolutely wonderful
Hi SD.. I’m Bkay, thank you so much for the information you share with us new traders, highly appreciated…I was wondering as a price action trader, what timeframes do I have to use to check for reversal candlestick patterns?
Thanks for the words. All timeframes are important depending on your style. For me, daily charts, four hour charts, and a bigger picture weekly/monthly are used.
Thanks.
@SD
Many thanks for replying and I would just like to add that for someone who is 53 years old…..starting out all over again I wanted to say thankyou for the amount of information you have provided for the likes of me who are just starting out.
Good luck to you and all that follow your trade setups as for me I am going to be practicing until I know, understand the tools I will be using (including charting software), and develop my edge as a PA trader.
Best
Hey Jay. You are welcome. Take your time, understand why I choose these setups and the trade triggers.
Is there a way that the charts with recommendations can be enlarged or blown larger so that the level numbers are visible clearly. Thank you. Mohann
You don’t need the exact price point. Just find the location on the chart and draw a box. You used to be able to click on the image and get the larger….but a few sites were using my images on their sites. I disabled that function.
Thank you for your analysis.
Hi SD,
I have been following your trade set ups. To be honest, I like your approach which has taught me alot in this market. Great work
Glad to read that John. What’s great about the setups I pick and the trade triggers on the lower time frames, there’s usually a trade that works (even a little) or a trade that never triggers. Really helps win loss rate which, although not the only measure of success, it’s a good starting point.
Hi SD,
I hope I find you well.
I can now easily find the triggers and trade successfully.
Now, I want to spot the setups for the coming week on my own and compare what I have with yours.
Can you tell me what should I look for or how should I go about it.
Your help in this regard will be much appreciated.
Hey Shingi. Glad to see that finding the triggers has become easier. You probably have about 3 you can use on the lower time frame trigger chart – trend line breaks, breakouts, failed tests of lows/highs. If you go back over all he setup charts, you will start to see a theme as to why I pick the ones that I do. Much better way to “get it” as opposed to me explaining it
Really nice content. I’m learning a lot on how to get in to the markets at the right levels. Cheers.
Great setup
Hi SD, do you have a social media platform where you traders signals so I that I can know exactly when to take a trade. Thanks
And great work, you’re the best at what you do
Hey David. Thanks for the words. No, I don’t use social media. Weird, I know! Your goal should be to find trade triggers that work for you. So many ways to do that – indicator, reversal candle, breakouts on lower time frames, trend line breaks……..
Hi SD, I took a 2/1 profit on NZDJPY thanks for that and look forward to the coming weeks setups
Great work Oliver.
Please,I need some of the indicators that you mentioned in ur scalping trading strategy.
(1)Fisher Indicator
(2)supertrendTrend Indicator.
kindly help on how to get them.Because it’s not in the indicators list on my MT4 platform.
You are going to have to search for them. I don’t use MT4 but I am sure they are coded somewhere. Google, can be your friend: https://www.best-metatrader-indicators.com/super-trend/
Hi, I’m a newbie. Which charting software do you use or would recommend
I use Tradingview for all my charts. There is a free version but since I trade stocks and futures as well, I use the pro plan and data add-ons.
Hi SD – Happy New year!!
How did last week’s setups do?
https://forextradingstrategies4u.com/forex-trading-signals-5/
Great setups