April 24 – April 29
EURCHF – Both sides were in play and the short triggered with a strong move taking out the inside bar. 119 pips for the downside
EURJPY – We got the flush down and then another shot long for 184 pips to the upside
GBPAUD – Failure test of highs (resistance) and short below for 225 pips potential to the downside
GBPNZD- Shorts took over with the failure test of the resistance level for 185 downside pips
USDJPY – Flush down with no trigger and then reversal. Buy stop high of April 27 for 266 pips potential
Last week was one for the record books as all listed setups gave some price movement you could trade. 1043 pips potential last week but of course you would not have gotten all of it. That number is just what was available and even 100 pips with good position sizing is a good week. Some of the moves were short lived which means you need to ensure you have a good way to manage trades. Another week where we have some seriously extended price moves with momentum. When those happen, we’d like to see some consolidation for another leg. Otherwise, you could be buying the highs just as price tanks.
April 17 – April 22
AUDJPY – The long idea was correct as price does break up for 209 pips. Short lived as price then dropped back like a rock
EURJPY – Another solid setup and break that drove up for 305 pips. Price then consolidated.
GBPAUD – Price moved lower from our noted area for 226 before another rally
GBPJPY – Price consolidated and exploded for 303 pips before a strong move to the downside
Quite the slow week last week with 396 pips potential. Price action, for the pairs we consider trading, is not lacking some solid trending action. While I do trade consolidated breakouts, even those are not setting up with great looking price action. The following 4 setups are the best of the best and are technically good quality setups.
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April 10 – April 15
AUDUSD – Was looking for a retrace that never happened.
EURAUD – Price put in a rally and then ranged
EURCHF – Price broke down for 43 pips and rallied
EURJPY – Price stayed inside the consolidation
GBPAUD – Price rallied
GBPJPY – Momentum stepped into the rally which took shorts off the table. Price stalled, put in an inside bar that is a lower time frame consolidation. 177 pips on the upside break into resistance
GBPNZD – Price did break the high and then consolidated
NZDUSD – Price broke down and retested the zone for 87 downside pips
USDCAD – Price rallied and the short fell 89 pips before reversing
500 potential pips last week. Some chart, you may want to shift up to a weekly chart to get a better view of the daily chart price action. The USDJPY is a good example of how the inside bar, essentially a volatility contraction, can be used for a trade entry. You still need some type of setup such as support/resistance holding or a pullback in price.
April 3 – April 8
AUDJPY – Although price rallied, I was looking for a deeper pullback to get involved in a buy.
AUDUSD – Looking long and price broke up on a one day move for potential 106 pips. Since the four hour chart is our lower time frame, you’d have seen the fast reversal to the downside
BTCUSD – Bitcoin continued it’s move to the downside
ETHUSD – Downside
EURCHF – 63 pip downside move and then price ranged
EURJPY – Price ranged at support
GBPJPY – 160 pips upside drift off inside bar break
USDJPY – Gears shifted to the upside after price began the move up. An inside bar break to the upside pushed a 171 pip potential
A $3000 pop in Bitcoin and 676 pips is how last week ended up. A few good examples of an exhaustion thrust after a strong move up that set up simple reversal plays. You want to be mindful that it is against the trend so quick profits when price stalls is not a bad plan.
Price in many pairs looks so random that they are not worth considering. If you can’t look at a chart and in 5 seconds think there is a setup, there probably isn’t. As an exercise, go back over the previous posts and compare the explanations/chart notations. You will note that what we do, is repeatable. No explanation, over the years of these posts, has been a one off to make the results look better. Repeatable = potential success.