Mar 27 – April 1
BTCUSD – $3000 jump on the bullish setup in Bitcoin. Price retraced back to the breakout zone.
ETHUSD – Price rose $330 from the from the brief consolidation, broke resistance on a less than healthy break
EURCHF – Rally off of the support line for 146 pips before retracing back to support
EURJPY – Price rallied off the consolidation at resistance for 280 pips before putting in the retrace. Think of this in terms of a failed breakout.
GBPJPY – Good example of an exhaustion to the upside with the long upper shadow. These set up reversals and this one ran 183 pips before consolidating.
NZDUSD – Price broke down and while it rallied back up to the consolidation zone, there is no trade
USDCHF – Price put in a short lived upside move off the reversal candles at support. 67 pips.
424 pips potential last week on only four set ups with the EURAUD with the bulk of the gain.
Keep in mind that in Forex, the amount of pips is only relevant when attaching a dollar amount. For some, 424 would be $400. For others, it could be in the thousands and for some, a couple of bucks.
The point is you don’t need hundreds of pips to make money in FX. What’s more important is a positive edge and an account size the allows larger positions with good risk protocols.
A lot of currencies are extended and not setting up for a counter trend trade. If you take those, just take profits when you see weakness setting in.
Mar 20 – Mar 25
EURAUD – Price continued lower and our lower time frame four hour chart gave us the entry on a pullback and breakdown. 286 pips to lows
EURCHF – Another break down and the four hour chart gave us a pullback to enter on breakdown of lows. 69 pips to lows potential
EURUSD – Price ranged
GBPCAD – Small pop off inside bar which is a lower time frame consolidation. 69 pips upside before breaking down.
Almost 750 pips potential last week with the big move in EURJPY offering no entry. For this week, not a lot of Forex pairs set up in structure we can trade. Some pullbacks are too far extended to enter. Pay attention to the EURUSD for a good structure trading lesson. It may not work out but higher lows into resistance is, over the long term, more bullish than it is bearish.
Mar 13 – Mar 18
AUDUSD – Price broke downward completing a complex correction and put in a lower time frame consolidation. This was a breakout entry into a pullback reversal. 190 pips upside. Lesson: When you see the end of an impulse move that has a long upper shadow for an uptrend, I generally expect a complex correction over a simple correction.
EURAUD – Price continued a pullback and set up an obvious reversal candle right at the prior support of October 2021 which now acted as resistance. 285 pips potential.
EURCHF – Price broke to the upside.
EURJPY – Price ripped to the upside and didn’t get any entry for a long.
GBPJPY – No breakdown and using the four hour chart on March 15, lower time frame PB for 273 pip upside. The key to going long was the push into lows, as shown by the consolidation after momentum, did set up a reversal. The slight consolidation on the impulse leg after the momentum off the lows, gave insight into a long.
NZDUSD – Price broke down but was a push from the high of the range. These usually set up a reversal back into the direction of the range. Skip these types of breakouts.
USDCAD – No trade
485 pips with last weeks setups. Some good lessons with AUDUSD and EURGBP. When trading pullbacks, we don’t want to see momentum come into the corrective move. Momentum moves generally have traders jumping in for another move in the same direction. Looking for consolidation and then trading that break in your direction is a safer play. GBPCAD is a good example of reading price action. While some may think it’s a reversal candle, it was really a consolidation because it closed in the middle of the range. Learning to infer lower time frame price action through higher time frame candles, is a worth skill to learn.
Mar 6 – Mar 11
AUDUSD – We had a 2 candle pullback with the first candle being an exhaustion candle. No trade as not enough consolidation
EURGBP – We had the pullback to our red zone but far too much momentum in the correction to short
EURJPY – Called the snap back and a four hour chart entry with a buy stop over the March 6 candle led to a 344 pip jump in price.
GBPAUD – Reversal candlestick plotted and entry was at March 6 high. Price rallied and pulled back putting in a lower swing high on March 7. Buy stop lowered and price led to 120 pips upside.
GBPCAD – Reversal candle closed in middle of range which is not a true reversal. Pullback was not deep enough but this was a good short but no proper setup.
GBPUSD – Would have loved this short but price was extended coming into the week and continued to drop. No entry.
NZUDUSD – Failure test showed up for 21 pip drop but price continued to range after that.
404 pips potential this past week along with some short lived moves in Crypto.
Many of the major FX pairs have had some large moves this past week. Those are tough to trade as overextended price has a strong tendency to snap back at any moment. If you do trade against the main move, look for close profit targets. Don’t be greedy. FX does not have the same drivers as other instruments. Geopolitical issues and monetary policy are the biggest drivers. With the current conflict, you can see currencies being affected.
As for crypto, the current price conditions are not simple to trade. I’d like to see some type of strong move before looking for an entry.
The issue is, with many markets in general, strong moves are being reversed. I am trading my plan and taking 1.2R targets for the most part. Better days are ahead.
Feb 27 – Mar 4
BTCUSD – Short lived move off a break of our entry zone. $4300 jump and collapse.
ETHUSD – No entry as price seems to be forming a triangle
GBPCAD – Price was holding support on the daily. The Feb 28 candle showed a lower time frame rally and collapse. This put a short in play for 154 pips. Learning how to read lower time frame price action through the individual higher time frame candles, can be a strong edge for a trader.
GBPUSD – Inside bar break to the downside for 160
NZDUSD – Long setup was good for 90 pips as price followed through the black line
SOLUSD – Short lived upside for $11
USDJPY – Price ranged
One look at the major and a few minor FX pairs shows some price action in pretty rough shape. Not much in the way of trending price action out of the 16 pairs I look through for setups. The best trade of last week was GBPNZD and the resolution of a triangle pattern but still 420 pips potential. Triangles, when they break, can move quite a distance before finding a pause and is one pattern your should look for.