April 24 – April 29
EURCHF – Both sides were in play and the short triggered with a strong move taking out the inside bar. 119 pips for the downside
EURJPY – We got the flush down and then another shot long for 184 pips to the upside
GBPAUD – Failure test of highs (resistance) and short below for 225 pips potential to the downside
GBPNZD- Shorts took over with the failure test of the resistance level for 185 downside pips
USDJPY – Flush down with no trigger and then reversal. Buy stop high of April 27 for 266 pips potential
Last week was one for the record books as all listed setups gave some price movement you could trade. 1043 pips potential last week but of course you would not have gotten all of it. That number is just what was available and even 100 pips with good position sizing is a good week. Some of the moves were short lived which means you need to ensure you have a good way to manage trades. Another week where we have some seriously extended price moves with momentum. When those happen, we’d like to see some consolidation for another leg. Otherwise, you could be buying the highs just as price tanks.
April 17 – April 22
AUDJPY – The long idea was correct as price does break up for 209 pips. Short lived as price then dropped back like a rock
EURJPY – Another solid setup and break that drove up for 305 pips. Price then consolidated.
GBPAUD – Price moved lower from our noted area for 226 before another rally
GBPJPY – Price consolidated and exploded for 303 pips before a strong move to the downside
Quite the slow week last week with 396 pips potential. Price action, for the pairs we consider trading, is not lacking some solid trending action. While I do trade consolidated breakouts, even those are not setting up with great looking price action. The following 4 setups are the best of the best and are technically good quality setups.
For those really interested in trading cryptocurrency, my buddy Mark is putting out some great videos on crypto.
Mark will show his complete portfolio of crypto and what he is looking to trade. Grab a coffee and make sure to check out those videos.
April 10 – April 15
AUDUSD – Was looking for a retrace that never happened.
EURAUD – Price put in a rally and then ranged
EURCHF – Price broke down for 43 pips and rallied
EURJPY – Price stayed inside the consolidation
GBPAUD – Price rallied
GBPJPY – Momentum stepped into the rally which took shorts off the table. Price stalled, put in an inside bar that is a lower time frame consolidation. 177 pips on the upside break into resistance
GBPNZD – Price did break the high and then consolidated
NZDUSD – Price broke down and retested the zone for 87 downside pips
USDCAD – Price rallied and the short fell 89 pips before reversing
500 potential pips last week. Some chart, you may want to shift up to a weekly chart to get a better view of the daily chart price action. The USDJPY is a good example of how the inside bar, essentially a volatility contraction, can be used for a trade entry. You still need some type of setup such as support/resistance holding or a pullback in price.
April 3 – April 8
AUDJPY – Although price rallied, I was looking for a deeper pullback to get involved in a buy.
AUDUSD – Looking long and price broke up on a one day move for potential 106 pips. Since the four hour chart is our lower time frame, you’d have seen the fast reversal to the downside
BTCUSD – Bitcoin continued it’s move to the downside
ETHUSD – Downside
EURCHF – 63 pip downside move and then price ranged
EURJPY – Price ranged at support
GBPJPY – 160 pips upside drift off inside bar break
USDJPY – Gears shifted to the upside after price began the move up. An inside bar break to the upside pushed a 171 pip potential
A $3000 pop in Bitcoin and 676 pips is how last week ended up. A few good examples of an exhaustion thrust after a strong move up that set up simple reversal plays. You want to be mindful that it is against the trend so quick profits when price stalls is not a bad plan.
Price in many pairs looks so random that they are not worth considering. If you can’t look at a chart and in 5 seconds think there is a setup, there probably isn’t. As an exercise, go back over the previous posts and compare the explanations/chart notations. You will note that what we do, is repeatable. No explanation, over the years of these posts, has been a one off to make the results look better. Repeatable = potential success.
Thanks for the setups.
BTCUSD has a bear flag that got broken last week. My final target is 12k.
Certainly not a far fetched outcome for Bitcoin. While I don’t usually make projections, 12-17K is doable.
Watch out for inverse H&S on GBPAUD. This pair may be reversing here.
Signals 16-21 January, please explain the following:
AUDJPY on the monthly timeframe is in downtrend, making lower highs. On the weekly timeframe, it makes double top. On the daily timeframe, if you draw a trendline joining the lows of 3 December, 20 December and 10 January, it has just break the trendline. What are your criteria to look for upside?
I submit that the monthly has been moving higher off the lows of March 2020 and is putting in higher highs and lows with over a 2000 pip run. I also submit that the monthly is a range at highs.
I don’t consider monthly outside of structures…such as the consolidation.
The weekly double top has done it’s job. I’d have been more impressed with the double top if there was an actual momentum break of highs and immediate rejection. If that had occurred, we may have seen a true down trend form. I see more the weekly forming a triangle.
If I were a weekly chart trader, I would have shorted the recent rally due to the strong move to the downside.
Daily. My trendlines rules don’t just connect any high or low. I have to be able to connect the last low into a high for a valid uptrend line. Your trend line, for me, is not valid.
Because your trend line is not valid for me, this recent move was, at first, the making of a complex correction. However, once price started basing on support, that is bearish. The momentum move down on the last day of the week, confirmed the break.
I am a swing trader. While I take the trend into consideration, I have other price action and structures I concern myself with. I know my time frame. I can easily trade a bull flag on a daily during a down trend on the weekly. It’s paid off extremely well over the years not only in FX and Crypto, but also stocks. I don’t trade futures much anymore.
How is audjpy in a downtrend on Monthly. It is a clear uptrend having broken all kinds of previous highs.
EURGBP longs will not be ready until the price takes out the Double Bottom it established in 2020. Once that is done, it will be a great trade for the year, all the way to 0.90
I see where you are going with that. Take out the potential support, reverse, and look to trap shorts who must reverse. What you trade in time frame dependent. Most certainly as a swing trader there were clear opportunities to buy. Keep in mind the currencies are driven by different factors that have a greater effect on sustained price moves than standard technical analysis.
Well, as I had pointed out eurgbp did take out that DB. But euro is still very weak bcos of the war. I will wait until the war situation cools down and then look for setups in euro to buy
Yes. One look at the Euro futures and it’s easy to see how weak the Euro is.
By the same token, the Yen futures is also weak.
Depending on your time horizon, playing long in a EUR cross can work.
Traders just have to ensure they have a trade manage plan or they can get eaten up.
Is basing at highs or lows essentially a flag pattern, traded in the usual manner? Fantastic content all round, thank you for your efforts!
Appreciate it Ben.
Basing would generally mean a horizontal range but they take many forms. Patterns are rarely perfect and I find the uglier it is, the better it can trade.
The basing can have you enter a position before breaks that will lure in other traders. Failure test of the lows of the base, a break of a previous candle high, can be entries. I also don’t look for a perfect entry location. As long as I have direction right and use smart stops, I don’t have to pick the top or bottom.
That said, basing, flags, etc, I will generally call all of them a consolidation for simplicity sake.
Hi. For wk 10th Oct, you mentioned that you traded inside bar set ups for CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY for very good pip gains. I’m learning so would really appreciate it if you could confirm the date and timeframe, which these occurred please.
I don’t have the time to go back over old charts however any time frame entry other than the daily, will be the four hour chart. Inside bars are obvious.
Keep in mind that all you have with an inside bar, is a lower time frame consolidation. You can play the break of the inside bar OR head to a lower time frame to see the consolidation.
I just discovered this website. Do you typically send out alerts of when you enter these given trades?
Thanks for coming by. The only time I update is on the weekend. Every trader will have their own way of triggering into the trades. As you go through the history of this section, you will read about the few triggers that are used. This was never about having a trade alert service.
Thank you so much i find it promising since
It provides the signals with educational touches.
So clever idea and productive
Keep it up you deserve all support
Thanks for all the information you provide.
I started trading in May this year. Am only on a demo account for the time being. I have learnt alot from Youtube etc and think that I have a gresp of the basics.
I started off alright but now I am making the wrong decisions, and am finding it increasingly difficult to read the charts. It’s all becoming a nightmare.
Any advice would be most welcome.
Thanks so much ❤️❤️📈📈
This is absolutely wonderful
Hi SD.. I’m Bkay, thank you so much for the information you share with us new traders, highly appreciated…I was wondering as a price action trader, what timeframes do I have to use to check for reversal candlestick patterns?
Thanks for the words. All timeframes are important depending on your style. For me, daily charts, four hour charts, and a bigger picture weekly/monthly are used.
Many thanks for replying and I would just like to add that for someone who is 53 years old…..starting out all over again I wanted to say thankyou for the amount of information you have provided for the likes of me who are just starting out.
Good luck to you and all that follow your trade setups as for me I am going to be practicing until I know, understand the tools I will be using (including charting software), and develop my edge as a PA trader.
Hey Jay. You are welcome. Take your time, understand why I choose these setups and the trade triggers.
Is there a way that the charts with recommendations can be enlarged or blown larger so that the level numbers are visible clearly. Thank you. Mohann
You don’t need the exact price point. Just find the location on the chart and draw a box. You used to be able to click on the image and get the larger….but a few sites were using my images on their sites. I disabled that function.
Thank you for your analysis.
I have been following your trade set ups. To be honest, I like your approach which has taught me alot in this market. Great work
Glad to read that John. What’s great about the setups I pick and the trade triggers on the lower time frames, there’s usually a trade that works (even a little) or a trade that never triggers. Really helps win loss rate which, although not the only measure of success, it’s a good starting point.
I hope I find you well.
I can now easily find the triggers and trade successfully.
Now, I want to spot the setups for the coming week on my own and compare what I have with yours.
Can you tell me what should I look for or how should I go about it.
Your help in this regard will be much appreciated.
Hey Shingi. Glad to see that finding the triggers has become easier. You probably have about 3 you can use on the lower time frame trigger chart – trend line breaks, breakouts, failed tests of lows/highs. If you go back over all he setup charts, you will start to see a theme as to why I pick the ones that I do. Much better way to “get it” as opposed to me explaining it
Really nice content. I’m learning a lot on how to get in to the markets at the right levels. Cheers.
Hi SD, do you have a social media platform where you traders signals so I that I can know exactly when to take a trade. Thanks
And great work, you’re the best at what you do
Hey David. Thanks for the words. No, I don’t use social media. Weird, I know! Your goal should be to find trade triggers that work for you. So many ways to do that – indicator, reversal candle, breakouts on lower time frames, trend line breaks……..
Hi SD, I took a 2/1 profit on NZDJPY thanks for that and look forward to the coming weeks setups
Great work Oliver.
Please,I need some of the indicators that you mentioned in ur scalping trading strategy.
kindly help on how to get them.Because it’s not in the indicators list on my MT4 platform.
You are going to have to search for them. I don’t use MT4 but I am sure they are coded somewhere. Google, can be your friend: https://www.best-metatrader-indicators.com/super-trend/
Hi, I’m a newbie. Which charting software do you use or would recommend
I use Tradingview for all my charts. There is a free version but since I trade stocks and futures as well, I use the pro plan and data add-ons.
Hi SD – Happy New year!!
How did last week’s setups do?