Sept 25 – Sept 30
AUDJPY – Support did not hold.
EURAUD – Price broke to the upside
Can’t argue with the setups from last week with the potential of 827 pips depending on stops and entries. One highlight is the EJ where basing on support was in play. Basing on support gives the higher probability of a downside break. Under resistance gives a higher probability of a break to the upside. Simple patterns will continue to perform the same as they have for decades.
This week, many FX pairs had a meltdown and are extended. Those are difficult to trade and not something I like to do. If those are up your alley, lower time frames that show a reversal are a viable approach to trading them.
Sept 18 – Sept 23
AUDJPY – Price broke support and continued to the downside
EURGBP – Held the zone and made a massive one day move of 175 pips to the upside
EURJPY – Great example of basing on support being a bearish setup. 384 downside pips on the break
USDCAD – Price failed to claim lower and shorts off the table. Break of high of setup candlestick lead to 268 pips to the upside.
While it was a fairly decent week last week with small gains in Bitcoin and 560 pips potential in Forex, price across the board is messy. The truth about trading is that much of the time is spent waiting for a good opportunity to put risk on in the market. Right now, it is not the best time. Rising interest rates and threats of recessions, trading is a little dicey. Yes, there are profits to be made and, as an example, there are decent opportunities in stocks, sitting is not a bad strategy overall.
As for crypto, again, you can buy short term bumps in price but longer term buying right now is probably ill advised.
Sept 11 – Sept 16
BTCUSD – Bitcoin made a brief push above resistance and continued back to the downside. Frankly, this was not a great setup. Breakouts can work if there is basing under resistance. Furthermore, strong momentum off lows and then through resistance often fail. $910 upside
ETHUSD – Price didn’t hold the highs and collapsed with no entry.
EURAUD – 145 pips to the upside and a good example of basing under resistance.
EURJPY – No basing and price collapsed
GBPJPY – Momentum and basing is generally a bullish move. Although price did run 162 pips to the upside, it did hold the longer term resistance at 167.94 zone
USDCAD – 260 pips off the pullback to the upside.
972 pips with EURJPY racking up 508 pips to the upside off a simple breakout/pullback setup. All pairs except the USDCAD made profitable moves. The USDCAD reversed off the resistance zone as opposed to the upside breakout. Some nice momentum moves last week has given us a few good setups this week. There is an edge in trading the second leg of a momentum move when we see basing at the highs of momentum
Sept 4 – Sept 9
AUDJPY – We talked about the triangle with price pushing into resistance being bullish. We got the buyers driving price to the upside for 249 pips.
EURCHF – 126 pips downside as price was hitting up against resistance and reversed.
EURGBP – 89 pips upside once the basing a the high of the momentum move moved back to the upside, as predicted.
EURJPY – 508 pips with the breakout/pullback play as mentioned in the setups.
USDCAD – Price reversed back to the downside. No trade
Pretty solid week last week with the potential of 485 pips. The USDCHF had a great move to the upside but unable to get an entry as there was no pause in the price movement. Having a trading process that you stick to may have you missing big moves at times. You can’t catch them all. Sometimes you see the price ripping and you can’t get involved. Don’t jump it. Stick to your trading plan no matter what.